Wednesday 11 November 2026 15 live now 66% correct · last 30 days JackpotsNewsTelegram18+
BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Wales v Portugal: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Wales

LWLLL
Tue 17 Nov 2026

Portugal

WWWWL
Wales 16%Draw 20%Portugal 63% Expected goals 0.85 – 1.83
64%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.63

6/10Rating
1.63Odds

Picks by market

ResultPortugal to win63% · @1.28
Double chancePortugal or draw84% · fair 1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.68
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.25

Wales vs Portugal: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:45 WAT, Tuesday 17 November: Wales v Portugal in the UEFA Nations League. In the table, Wales are 3rd on 3 points after 4 matches; Portugal are 1st with 12.

Current form

Wales, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Denmark, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Portugal, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Norway, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Portugal, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.7 for Wales.

Head to head

When they last met (24 Sep 2026) it ended Portugal 1–0 Wales.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Wales 0.8 xG, Portugal 1.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 57%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Wales 16%, draw 20%, Portugal 63%.
  • GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.68.

Betarazi verdict

The Betarazi pick is Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.63 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Wales 0–1 Portugal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Wales16%fair 6.15 · @8.15
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @5.59
Portugal63%fair 1.58 · @1.28
2.68Expected goals
0.85Wales xG
1.83Portugal xG
57%Both score
58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%

From our goals model: Wales 0.8 – 1.8 Portugal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

WalesPortugal
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average-31%+31%
Goals conceded vs average-7%-8%
Our expected goals here0.771.50

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPortugal to win63%1.581.28
Double chancePortugal or draw84%1.19–
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score57%1.741.68
Draw no betPortugal (draw no bet)80%1.26–
Asian handicapPortugal -0.5 (Asian handicap)61%1.65–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals75%1.34–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals58%1.731.39
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals64%1.561.63
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals81%1.241.22
First team to scorePortugal to score first64%1.57–
Half-time resultPortugal ahead at half-time43%2.31–
Half-time / full-timeHT Portugal / FT Portugal38%2.63–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210%10.25–

Recent results

Wales – last 6

LWLLLD
4 Octvs Denmark0–1L
1 Octvs Norway2–1W
27 Sep@ Denmark0–2L
24 Sep@ Portugal0–1L
6 Jun@ Romania1–2L
2 Junvs Ghana1–1D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Portugal – last 6

WWWWLW
4 Octvs Norway2–1W
1 Oct@ Denmark4–2W
27 Sep@ Norway2–1W
24 Sepvs Wales1–0W
6 Julvs Spain0–1L
3 Julvs Croatia2–1W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

24 Sep 2026Portugal v Wales1–0
Wales vs Portugal head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Portugal4400+512
2Denmark420206
3Wales4103-33
4Norway4103-23

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Denmark Norway 141%2.39X22%3.92237%2.39 1.8–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 69%@1.42
Ukraine Georgia 137%2.39X28%3.49235%2.58 0.9–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 81%@1.26
Hungary Northern Ireland 143%1.83X28%3.38228%4.11 0.9–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 68%@1.52
Israel Austria 119%4.26X22%4.11259%1.65 1.0–2.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.42
Rep. Of Ireland Kosovo 151%1.87X27%3.39223%3.92 1.3–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.36
Poland Sweden 138%2.28X25%3.74238%2.59 1.3–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 69%@1.40
Bosnia & Herzegovina Romania 160%1.72X22%3.71218%4.27 2.0–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Wales vs Portugal?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.63.

Who will win Wales vs Portugal?

On our numbers Wales have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Portugal 63%.

How many goals will there be in Wales vs Portugal?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Wales vs Portugal?

Our predicted score is Wales 0–1 Portugal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Wales vs Portugal?

Wales vs Portugal (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.