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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Poland v Sweden: numbers & prediction

UEFA Nations League · Europe

Poland

LWLDD
Tue 17 Nov 2026

Sweden

WDWWL
Poland 38%Draw 25%Sweden 38% Expected goals 1.33 – 1.32
69%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.40

7/10Rating
1.40Odds

Picks by market

ResultPoland to win38% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score63% · @1.52
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.14

Poland vs Sweden: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Tuesday 17 November the UEFA Nations League brings Poland against Sweden. Kick-off: 20:45 WAT. In the table, Poland are 3rd on 4 points after 4 matches; Sweden are 1st with 10.

Current form

Poland, last 5: LWLDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Bosnia & Herzegovina, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Sweden, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Romania, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Sweden, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.8 for Poland.

Head to head

When they last met (28 Sep 2026) it ended Sweden 3–1 Poland. The last 2 head-to-heads: Poland 0 wins, Sweden 2, draws 0. Those games averaged 4.5 goals and saw GG land 2 times.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Poland 1.3 xG, Sweden 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 63%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Poland 38%, draw 25%, Sweden 38%.
  • GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.52.

Betarazi verdict

The Betarazi pick is Under 3.5 goals (69%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Poland 1–1 Sweden. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Poland38%fair 2.64 · @2.28
Draw25%fair 4.08 · @3.74
Sweden38%fair 2.66 · @2.59
2.65Expected goals
1.33Poland xG
1.32Sweden xG
63%Both score
53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%

From our goals model: Poland 1.3 – 1.3 Sweden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

PolandSweden
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average+20%+7%
Goals conceded vs average-9%-18%
Our expected goals here1.211.20

Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPoland to win38%2.642.28
Double chanceEither team to win75%1.321.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score63%1.601.52
Draw no betPoland (draw no bet)50%1.99–
Asian handicapSweden +0.5 (Asian handicap)63%1.59–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals74%1.35–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals53%1.881.60
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals69%1.451.40
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals87%1.15–
First team to scorePoland to score first47%2.15–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time43%2.34–
Half-time / full-timeHT Poland / FT Poland21%4.67–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18%12.14–

Recent results

Poland – last 6

LWLDDL
5 Oct@ Bosnia & Herzegovina0–1L
2 Octvs Romania6–0W
28 Sep@ Sweden1–3L
25 Sepvs Bosnia & Herzegovina0–0D
3 Junvs Nigeria2–2D
31 Mayvs Ukraine0–2L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Sweden – last 6

WDWWLD
5 Oct@ Romania1–0W
2 Oct@ Bosnia & Herzegovina1–1D
28 Sepvs Poland3–1W
25 Sepvs Romania2–1W
30 Jun@ France0–3L
26 Jun@ Japan1–1D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

28 Sep 2026Sweden v Poland3–1
31 Mar 2026Sweden v Poland3–2
Poland vs Sweden head-to-head page →

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Sweden4310+410
2Bosnia & Herzegovina4220+38
3Poland4112+34
4Romania4004-100

More UEFA Nations League predictions

League hub
Wales Portugal 116%8.15X20%5.59263%1.28 0.8–1.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.63
Denmark Norway 141%2.39X22%3.92237%2.39 1.8–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 69%@1.42
Ukraine Georgia 137%2.39X28%3.49235%2.58 0.9–0.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 81%@1.26
Hungary Northern Ireland 143%1.83X28%3.38228%4.11 0.9–0.8xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 68%@1.52
Israel Austria 119%4.26X22%4.11259%1.65 1.0–2.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.42
Rep. Of Ireland Kosovo 151%1.87X27%3.39223%3.92 1.3–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.36
Bosnia & Herzegovina Romania 160%1.72X22%3.71218%4.27 2.0–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Poland vs Sweden?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Poland vs Sweden?

On our numbers Poland have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sweden 38%.

How many goals will there be in Poland vs Sweden?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Poland vs Sweden?

Our predicted score is Poland 1–1 Sweden, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Poland vs Sweden?

Poland vs Sweden (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.