Value bet: Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultOlimpo Bahia Blanca to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceOlimpo Bahia Blanca or draw ✓71% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.46
Santamarina vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
22:10 WAT, Sunday 17 May: Santamarina v Olimpo Bahia Blanca in the Torneo Federal A, played at Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin. In the table, Santamarina are 36th, in the drop zone, on 13 points after 16 matches; Olimpo Bahia Blanca are 1st (leading the league) with 31. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Santamarina 0.7 xG, Olimpo Bahia Blanca 1.0 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 71%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Santamarina 29%, draw 31%, Olimpo Bahia Blanca 40%.
Lower-risk option: Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw (71%) at 1.40.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Santamarina 0–1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Santamarina29%fair 3.41 · @2.62
Draw31%fair 3.25 · @2.75
Olimpo Bahia Blanca40%fair 2.51 · @2.70
1.73Expected goals
0.70Santamarina xG
1.03Olimpo Bahia Blanca xG
46%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–118%
0–018%
1–113%
1–012%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: Santamarina 0.7 – 1.0 Olimpo Bahia Blanca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Santamarina
Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Attack vs Torneo Federal A average
-29%
+4%
Goals conceded vs average
+47%
-34%
Our expected goals here
0.57
1.09
Our own ratings from every Torneo Federal A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Olimpo Bahia Blanca to win✗
40%
2.51
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw✓
71%
1.42
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.53
Draw no bet
Olimpo Bahia Blanca (draw no bet)
58%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Santamarina +1 (Asian handicap)✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.12
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
1.03
First team to score
Olimpo Bahia Blanca to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.46
–
Recent results
Santamarina – last 1
D
5 Apr
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Olimpo Bahia Blanca – last 2
WW
27 Apr
vs Circulo Deportivo
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Guillermo Brown
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santamarina and Olimpo Bahia Blanca.
What is the prediction for Santamarina vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
Our pick is Olimpo Bahia Blanca or draw with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Santamarina vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
On our numbers Santamarina have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 31% and Olimpo Bahia Blanca 40%.
How many goals will there be in Santamarina vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santamarina vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
Our predicted score is Santamarina 0–1 Olimpo Bahia Blanca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Santamarina vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca?
Santamarina vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 22:10 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
