Alvarado 71%Draw 22%Germinal de Rawson 7%Expected goals 1.58 – 0.33
81%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlvarado to win ✓71% · @1.22
Double chanceAlvarado or draw ✓93% · @1.01
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓61% · @1.36
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗23% · fair 4.27
Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alvarado welcome Germinal de Rawson for a Torneo Federal A fixture on Sunday 5 July (18:00 WAT). In the table, Alvarado are 5th, upper half, on 27 points after 16 matches; Germinal de Rawson are 30th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Alvarado, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Villa Mitre, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Germinal de Rawson, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Santamarina, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alvarado 1.6 xG, Germinal de Rawson 0.3 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alvarado 71%, draw 22%, Germinal de Rawson 7%.
GG/NG: NG (61%) at 1.36.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alvarado 1–0 Germinal de Rawson. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alvarado71%fair 1.40 · @1.22
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @4.50
Germinal de Rawson7%fair 14.52 · @15.00
1.91Expected goals
1.58Alvarado xG
0.33Germinal de Rawson xG
39%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–023%
2–019%
0–015%
3–010%
1–18%
2–16%
From our goals model: Alvarado 1.6 – 0.3 Germinal de Rawson expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alvarado
Germinal de Rawson
Attack vs Torneo Federal A average
+28%
-20%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.61
0.40
Our own ratings from every Torneo Federal A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alvarado to win✓
71%
1.40
1.22
Double chance
Alvarado or draw✓
93%
1.07
1.01
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
1.36
Draw no bet
Alvarado (draw no bet)✓
91%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
Alvarado -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.67 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.23
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
1.08
First team to score
Alvarado to score first✓
71%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alvarado / FT Alvarado✓
43%
2.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
23%
4.27
–
Recent results
Alvarado – last 6
LWDWDW
28 Jun
@ Villa Mitre
0–1
L
20 Jun
vs Circulo Deportivo
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
2–2
D
7 Jun
vs Sol de Mayo
2–0
W
31 May
@ Guillermo Brown
0–0
D
24 May
vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Germinal de Rawson – last 6
WDDLWD
28 Jun
vs Santamarina
1–0
W
14 Jun
@ Villa Mitre
0–0
D
7 Jun
vs Circulo Deportivo
0–0
D
30 May
@ Kimberley Mar del Plata
0–1
L
24 May
vs Sol de Mayo
1–0
W
17 May
vs Guillermo Brown
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alvarado and Germinal de Rawson.
What is the prediction for Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
On our numbers Alvarado have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Germinal de Rawson 7%.
How many goals will there be in Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
Our predicted score is Alvarado 1–0 Germinal de Rawson, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson?
Alvarado vs Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
