Value bet: Boca Unidos to win @ 1.73 – our chance 63% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBoca Unidos to win ✓63% · @1.73
Double chanceBoca Unidos or draw ✓86% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.49
Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Boca Unidos welcome Sarmiento Resistencia to Estadio Leoncio Benitez for a Torneo Federal A fixture on Sunday 5 July (19:30 WAT). In the table, Boca Unidos are 29th, lower half, on 18 points after 16 matches; Sarmiento Resistencia are 35th (in the drop zone) with 15. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Boca Unidos, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Tucuman Central, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Sarmiento Resistencia, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Tucuman Central, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Boca Unidos 1.8 xG, Sarmiento Resistencia 0.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 49%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Boca Unidos 63%, draw 23%, Sarmiento Resistencia 14%.
Lower-risk option: Boca Unidos or draw (86%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Boca Unidos to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Boca Unidos 1–0 Sarmiento Resistencia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Boca Unidos63%fair 1.59 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.20
Sarmiento Resistencia14%fair 7.30 · @4.33
2.48Expected goals
1.85Boca Unidos xG
0.64Sarmiento Resistencia xG
49%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Boca Unidos 1.8 – 0.6 Sarmiento Resistencia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Boca Unidos
Sarmiento Resistencia
Attack vs Torneo Federal A average
+10%
-31%
Goals conceded vs average
+20%
+57%
Our expected goals here
2.08
0.59
Our own ratings from every Torneo Federal A result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Boca Unidos to win✓
63%
1.59
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Boca Unidos or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.67
Draw no bet
Boca Unidos (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Boca Unidos -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Boca Unidos to score first✓
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Boca Unidos ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Boca Unidos / FT Boca Unidos✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.49
–
Recent results
Boca Unidos – last 6
LWLWLD
21 Jun
@ Tucuman Central
0–2
L
14 Jun
vs San Martin Formosa
3–1
W
6 Jun
@ Defensores de Vilelas
0–2
L
31 May
vs Bartolomé Mitre
2–1
W
25 May
@ Sarmiento de La Banda
0–3
L
17 May
@ Juventud Antoniana
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sarmiento Resistencia – last 6
WLWLLL
28 Jun
vs Tucuman Central
1–0
W
21 Jun
@ San Martin Formosa
0–3
L
14 Jun
vs Defensores de Vilelas
2–0
W
6 Jun
@ Bartolomé Mitre
0–2
L
31 May
vs Sarmiento de La Banda
0–1
L
23 May
@ Juventud Antoniana
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Boca Unidos and Sarmiento Resistencia.
What is the prediction for Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
On our numbers Boca Unidos have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sarmiento Resistencia 14%.
How many goals will there be in Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
Our predicted score is Boca Unidos 1–0 Sarmiento Resistencia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia?
Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 5 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Leoncio Benitez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
