Value bet: Independiente Medellin to win @ 2.88 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente Medellin to win ✓40% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.58
Cusco vs Independiente Medellin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
03:00 WAT, Thursday 21 May: Cusco v Independiente Medellin in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. In the table, Cusco are 4th on 1 points after 6 matches; Independiente Medellin are 3rd with 7.
Current form
Cusco, last 5: LDDLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sport Boys, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Independiente Medellin, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Orsomarso, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Independiente Medellin, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.8 for Cusco.
Head to head
When they last met (1 May 2026) it ended Independiente Medellin 1–0 Cusco.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cusco 1.3 xG, Independiente Medellin 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cusco 36%, draw 25%, Independiente Medellin 40%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Independiente Medellin to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cusco 1–1 Independiente Medellin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cusco36%fair 2.80 · @2.34
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.40
Independiente Medellin40%fair 2.53 · @2.88
2.71Expected goals
1.29Cusco xG
1.42Independiente Medellin xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–09%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Cusco 1.3 – 1.4 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente Medellin to win✓
40%
2.53
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.60
Draw no bet
Independiente Medellin (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Cusco +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
1.15
First team to score
Independiente Medellin to score first✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente Medellin / FT Independiente Medellin✓
What is the prediction for Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Cusco have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Independiente Medellin 40%.
How many goals will there be in Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Cusco 1–1 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Cusco vs Independiente Medellin?
Cusco vs Independiente Medellin (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
LDU de Quito2
Lanus0
Palmeiras0
Cerro Porteno1
Junior3
Sporting Cristal2
Deportivo La Guaira2
Independ. Rivadavia4