LDU de Quito 48%Draw 28%Lanus 24%Expected goals 1.16 – 0.79
82%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultLDU de Quito to win ✓48% · @1.90
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.17
LDU de Quito vs Lanus: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
LDU de Quito welcome Lanus to Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado for a CONMEBOL Libertadores fixture on Thursday 21 May (01:30 WAT). In the table, LDU de Quito are 1st on 12 points after 6 matches; Lanus are 3rd with 9. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
LDU de Quito, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Mushuc Runa SC, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Lanus, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Argentinos JRS, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (28 Apr 2026) it ended Lanus 1–0 LDU de Quito.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give LDU de Quito 1.2 xG, Lanus 0.8 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – LDU de Quito 48%, draw 28%, Lanus 24%.
Lower-risk option: LDU de Quito or draw (76%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: LDU de Quito 1–0 Lanus. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
LDU de Quito48%fair 2.07 · @1.90
Draw28%fair 3.60 · @3.40
Lanus24%fair 4.17 · @4.00
1.96Expected goals
1.16LDU de Quito xG
0.79Lanus xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
0–014%
1–113%
0–111%
2–010%
2–18%
From our goals model: LDU de Quito 1.2 – 0.8 Lanus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Lanus?
On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Lanus 24%.
How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Lanus?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Lanus?
Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 1–0 Lanus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is LDU de Quito vs Lanus?
LDU de Quito vs Lanus (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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