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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno: numbers & prediction

CONMEBOL Libertadores · South America · Nubank Parque

Palmeiras

DWWDW
0–1
FT

Cerro Porteno

DWLDD
Palmeiras 66%Draw 22%Cerro Porteno 12% Expected goals 1.67 – 0.58
77%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.28Odds

Picks by market

ResultPalmeiras to win ✗66% · @1.31
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✗88% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.45
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.70

Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 21 May the CONMEBOL Libertadores brings Palmeiras against Cerro Porteno at Nubank Parque. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT. In the table, Palmeiras are 2nd on 11 points after 6 matches; Cerro Porteno are 1st with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Palmeiras, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cruzeiro, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.

Cerro Porteno, last 5: DWLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Club Guarani, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Palmeiras, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Cerro Porteno.

Head to head

When they last met (30 Apr 2026) it ended Cerro Porteno 1–1 Palmeiras.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Palmeiras 1.7 xG, Cerro Porteno 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 48%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Palmeiras 66%, draw 22%, Cerro Porteno 12%.
  • GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.45.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Palmeiras 1–0 Cerro Porteno. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Palmeiras66%fair 1.52 · @1.31
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @4.65
Cerro Porteno12%fair 8.40 · @11.00
2.25Expected goals
1.67Palmeiras xG
0.58Cerro Porteno xG
48%Both score
43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%

From our goals model: Palmeiras 1.7 – 0.6 Cerro Porteno expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPalmeiras to win ✗66%1.521.31
Double chancePalmeiras or draw ✗88%1.141.04
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓52%1.911.45
Draw no betPalmeiras (draw no bet) ✗85%1.18–
Asian handicapPalmeiras -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗68%1.481.35
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓57%1.761.77
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77%1.291.28
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.121.09
First team to scorePalmeiras to score first ✗66%1.51–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓44%2.25–
Half-time / full-timeHT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras ✗40%2.52–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18%5.70–

Recent results

Palmeiras – last 6

DWWDWW
17 Mayvs Cruzeiro1–1D
14 May@ Jacuipense4–1W
5 May@ Sporting Cristal2–0W
30 Apr@ Cerro Porteno1–1D
23 Aprvs Jacuipense3–0W
16 Aprvs Sporting Cristal2–1W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Cerro Porteno – last 6

DWLDDW
12 Mayvs Club Guarani0–0D
8 May@ Junior1–0W
3 May@ Deportivo Recoleta1–2L
30 Aprvs Palmeiras1–1D
25 Aprvs Sportivo Ameliano1–1D
14 Aprvs Junior1–0W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

30 Apr 2026Cerro Porteno v Palmeiras1–1
Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno head-to-head page →

CONMEBOL Libertadores table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Cerro Porteno6411+413
2Palmeiras6321+511
3Sporting Cristal6204-36
4Junior6114-64

More CONMEBOL Libertadores predictions

League hub
FT Flamengo1 Estudiantes L.P.0 164%1.49X23%3.95212%6.75 1.9–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.22 ✓
FT LDU de Quito2 Lanus0 148%1.90X28%3.40224%4.00 1.2–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 82%@1.22 ✓
FT Cusco2 Independiente Medellin3 136%2.34X25%3.40240%2.88 1.3–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓
FT Junior3 Sporting Cristal2 148%1.73X23%3.60229%4.65 1.4–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓
FT Deportivo La Guaira2 Independ. Rivadavia4 127%4.50X25%3.30248%1.84 1.2–1.4xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.20 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?

On our numbers Palmeiras have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cerro Porteno 12%.

How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?

Our predicted score is Palmeiras 1–0 Cerro Porteno, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno?

Palmeiras vs Cerro Porteno (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Nubank Parque.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.