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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Luverdense v Ceilândia: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil · Passo das Emas

Luverdense

WWDWL
1–1
FT

Ceilândia

LDDD
Luverdense 63%Draw 25%Ceilândia 11% Expected goals 1.58 – 0.51
63%
Betarazi pick

Luverdense to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating
1.67Odds

Picks by market

ResultLuverdense to win ✗63% · @1.67
Double chanceLuverdense or draw ✓89% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.11

Luverdense vs Ceilândia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

22:00 WAT, Sunday 28 June: Luverdense v Ceilândia in the Serie D, played at Passo das Emas.

Current form

Luverdense, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Ceilândia, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Ceilândia, last 4: LDDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Luverdense, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Momentum favours Luverdense, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Ceilândia.

Head to head

When they last met (20 Jun 2026) it ended Ceilândia 1–2 Luverdense.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Luverdense 1.6 xG, Ceilândia 0.5 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Luverdense 63%, draw 25%, Ceilândia 11%.
  • Lower-risk option: Luverdense or draw (89%) at 1.15.
  • GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.67.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Luverdense to win (63%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Luverdense 1–0 Ceilândia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Luverdense63%fair 1.58 · @1.67
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.10
Ceilândia11%fair 9.05 · @4.80
2.09Expected goals
1.58Luverdense xG
0.51Ceilândia xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–020%
2–016%
0–012%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%

From our goals model: Luverdense 1.6 – 0.5 Ceilândia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLuverdense to win ✗63%1.581.67 ▲
Double chanceLuverdense or draw ✓89%1.121.15
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗50%1.991.67
Draw no betLuverdense (draw no bet)85%1.17–
Asian handicapLuverdense -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓65%1.53–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84%1.19–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓94%1.07–
First team to scoreLuverdense to score first66%1.51–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓46%2.16–
Half-time / full-timeHT Luverdense / FT Luverdense ✗39%2.54–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20%5.11–

Recent results

Luverdense – last 6

WWDWLL
20 Jun@ Ceilândia2–1W
7 Junvs Inhumas4–0W
31 May@ Brasiliense1–1D
24 Mayvs Aparecidense1–0W
17 May@ Primavera MG0–1L
2 May@ Gama0–4L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Ceilândia – last 4

LDDD
20 Junvs Luverdense1–2L
7 Jun@ Mixto1–1D
30 Mayvs Goiatuba EC1–1D
5 Aprvs Mixto0–0D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Head to head

20 Jun 2026Ceilândia v Luverdense1–2
Luverdense vs Ceilândia head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Juazeirense0 Serra Branca1 136%2.35X29%2.75235%3.10 1.0–1.1xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 66%@1.36 ✓
FT Cianorte0 Independiente FSJ1 Pens 5–4 153%1.62X28%3.00219%5.80 1.1–0.6xG NGNot both teams to score 56%@1.44 ✓
FT Marcílio Dias2 Cascavel1 146%2.00X27%2.75227%4.00 1.3–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 67%@1.33 ✗
FT Noroeste1 Portuguesa RJ3 150%1.95X28%2.90222%3.90 1.4–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 66%@1.44 ✓
FT ABC1 Altos1 161%1.50X24%3.60215%5.50 1.7–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓
FT Manauara1 Independência1 167%1.15X20%5.50213%19.00 1.6–0.7xG GGBoth teams to score 51%@2.30 ✓
FT Ferroviario2 Central SC0 146%1.95X29%2.80225%3.90 1.2–1.0xG 1XFerroviario or draw 75%@1.20 ✓
FT Nacional AM0 Araguaína0 154%1.50X25%3.40221%6.00 1.6–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.00 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Luverdense vs Ceilândia?

Our pick is Luverdense to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Luverdense vs Ceilândia?

On our numbers Luverdense have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Ceilândia 11%.

How many goals will there be in Luverdense vs Ceilândia?

We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Luverdense vs Ceilândia?

Our predicted score is Luverdense 1–0 Ceilândia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.

When is Luverdense vs Ceilândia?

Luverdense vs Ceilândia (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 28 June 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Passo das Emas.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.