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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Sergipe v ASA: numbers & prediction

Serie D · Brazil

Sergipe

DDLDW
0–1
FT

ASA

DDDLD
Sergipe 34%Draw 29%ASA 36% Expected goals 1.08 – 1.24
51%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.96 · bookmaker 2.15 · Lost ✗

3/10Rating
2.15Odds
2

Value bet: ASA to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultASA to win ✓36% · @3.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.22

Sergipe vs ASA: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

21:00 WAT, Saturday 27 June: Sergipe v ASA in the Serie D.

Current form

Sergipe, last 5: DDLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with ASA, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

ASA, last 5: DDDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sergipe, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Head to head

When they last met (21 Jun 2026) it ended ASA 1–1 Sergipe.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sergipe 1.1 xG, ASA 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Sergipe 34%, draw 29%, ASA 36%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
  • Price worth noting: ASA to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 36%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 2.15 – longer than our fair 1.96, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sergipe 1–1 ASA. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sergipe34%fair 2.90 · @2.20
Draw29%fair 3.42 · @2.62
ASA36%fair 2.76 · @3.30
2.32Expected goals
1.08Sergipe xG
1.24ASA xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%

From our goals model: Sergipe 1.1 – 1.2 ASA expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultASA to win ✓36%2.763.30 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71%1.411.40
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗51%1.962.15 ▲
Draw no betASA (draw no bet) ✓51%1.95–
Asian handicapSergipe +1 (Asian handicap)77%1.29–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗67%1.48–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓59%1.69–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79%1.26–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓91%1.09–
First team to scoreASA to score first ✓48%2.07–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗46%2.18–
Half-time / full-timeHT ASA / FT ASA ✓23%4.35–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%12.22–

Recent results

Sergipe – last 6

DDLDWD
21 Jun@ ASA1–1D
14 Junvs Serra Branca1–1D
31 May@ Decisão2–3L
17 May@ Lagarto1–1D
4 May@ Retrô3–1W
27 Feb@ América SE1–1D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

ASA – last 6

DDDLDW
21 Junvs Sergipe1–1D
14 Jun@ Jacuipense1–1D
30 Mayvs CSE0–0D
7 May@ Sport Recife0–1L
30 Apr@ Juazeirense1–1D
9 Aprvs CRB2–0W
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Head to head

21 Jun 2026ASA v Sergipe1–1
Sergipe vs ASA head-to-head page →

More Serie D predictions

FT Blumenau1 São Luiz1 Pens 1–3 150%1.85X27%2.88222%4.00 1.3–0.8xG 1XBlumenau or draw 78%@1.20 ✓
FT Santa Catarina1 Sao Jose1 Pens 2–4 139%2.15X29%2.70232%3.40 1.1–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 52%@2.10 ✓
FT Ipatinga2 Vitória ES0 137%2.00X27%2.80235%3.75 1.1–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 51%@2.05 ✗
FT Maracanã0 Imperatriz0 Pens 6–7 153%1.73X28%3.00219%4.75 1.4–0.8xG 1Maracanã to win 53%@1.73 ✗
FT Trem1 Sampaio Correa2 139%2.50X26%2.88235%2.62 1.5–1.4xG GGBoth teams to score 55%@1.83 ✓
FT Água Santa1 Velo Clube1 Pens 1–4 149%1.85X27%2.88224%4.20 1.4–1.0xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.20 ✓
FT Iguatu1 Tuna Luso1 153%1.80X24%3.10222%4.00 1.8–1.1xG 1XIguatu or draw 78%@1.20 ✓
FT Portuguesa1 Sampaio Corrêa RJ0 161%1.25X24%4.50214%11.00 1.4–0.7xG 1Portuguesa to win 61%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sergipe vs ASA?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.

Who will win Sergipe vs ASA?

On our numbers Sergipe have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 29% and ASA 36%.

How many goals will there be in Sergipe vs ASA?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sergipe vs ASA?

Our predicted score is Sergipe 1–1 ASA, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is Sergipe vs ASA?

Sergipe vs ASA (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 27 June 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.