FC Lugano v Dukagjini Prediction & Expected Goals (23 Jul) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultFC Lugano to win ✓75% · @1.18

Double chanceFC Lugano or draw ✓92% · fair 1.08

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.35

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.96

FC Lugano vs Dukagjini: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 23 July the UEFA Europa Conference League brings FC Lugano against Dukagjini at Cornaredo. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT.

Current form

FC Lugano, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to FC Vaduz, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Dukagjini, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Lokomotiv Sofia, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give FC Lugano 2.4 xG, Dukagjini 0.7 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 52%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – FC Lugano 75%, draw 18%, Dukagjini 8%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.35.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 52%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Lugano 2–0 Dukagjini. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

FC Lugano75%fair 1.34 · @1.18

Draw18%fair 5.66 · @5.50

Dukagjini8%fair 12.88 · @16.00

3.08Expected goals

2.38FC Lugano xG

0.70Dukagjini xG

52%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–013%

1–011%

3–010%

2–19%

1–18%

3–17%

From our goals model: FC Lugano 2.4 – 0.7 Dukagjini expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	FC Lugano to win ✓	75%	1.34	1.18
Double chance	FC Lugano or draw ✓	92%	1.08	–
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	52%	1.92	2.35 ▲
Draw no bet	FC Lugano (draw no bet) ✓	91%	1.10	–
Asian handicap	FC Lugano -1 (Asian handicap)	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	80%	1.26	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	58%	1.72	1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	64%	1.57	1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
First team to score	FC Lugano to score first ✓	74%	1.36	–
Half-time result	FC Lugano ahead at half-time ✓	54%	1.84	–
Half-time / full-time	HT FC Lugano / FT FC Lugano ✓	51%	1.98	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.96	–

FC Lugano – last 6

LWWDWW

17 Jul	vs FC Vaduz	1–2	L
10 Jul	@ 1. FC Heidenheim	1–0	W
7 Jul	@ Memmingen	4–0	W
4 Jul	vs Rapperswil	1–1	D
27 Jun	vs Neuchatel Xamax FC	2–1	W
17 May	vs FC Basel 1893	4–0	W

2.2Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Dukagjini – last 6

DWWWWD

4 Jul	@ Lokomotiv Sofia	3–3	D
31 May	vs Ballkani	1–0	W
24 May	@ Prishtina e Re	3–2	W
21 May	@ Ferizaj	2–1	W
17 May	vs Drita	2–0	W
10 May	@ Llapi	0–0	D

1.8Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Lugano	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Panathinaikos	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Twente	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Brann	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	FC Copenhagen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Universitatea Craiova	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Mjallby AIF	3	2	1	0	+4	7
10	St. Truiden	3	2	1	0	+3	7
11	Ajax	3	2	0	1	+6	6
12	Trabzonspor	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	HNK Hajduk Split	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	SC Freiburg	3	2	0	1	-1	6
15	FK Crvena Zvezda	3	1	1	1	0	4
16	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	0	4
17	SC Braga	3	1	1	1	-1	4
18	Gent	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Riga	3	0	3	0	0	3
20	FC Thun	3	1	0	2	0	3
21	Borac Banja Luka	3	1	0	2	-1	3
22	Lincoln Red Imps FC	3	1	0	2	-3	3
23	FK Jablonec	3	0	2	1	-1	2
24	Aarhus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
25	FC Nordsjaelland	3	0	2	1	-2	2
26	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	3	0	2	1	-2	2
27	Kairat Almaty	3	0	2	1	-4	2
28	CSKA Sofia	3	0	1	2	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	3	0	1	2	-3	1
30	Pafos	3	0	1	2	-4	1
31	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-4	1
32	Heart Of Midlothian	3	0	1	2	-4	1
33	KuPS	3	0	1	2	-4	1
34	FC Midtjylland	3	0	1	2	-6	1
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	3	0	0	3	-5	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Team

Pts

Universitatea Craiova

-1

-1

-1

-1

-3

-1

-1

-2

-2

-4

-2

-3

-4

-4

-4

-4

-6

Inter Club d'Escaldes

-5

Kauno Žalgiris

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Lugano vs Dukagjini?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win FC Lugano vs Dukagjini?

On our numbers FC Lugano have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Dukagjini 8%.

How many goals will there be in FC Lugano vs Dukagjini?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FC Lugano vs Dukagjini?

Our predicted score is FC Lugano 2–0 Dukagjini, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is FC Lugano vs Dukagjini?

FC Lugano vs Dukagjini (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Cornaredo.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

FC Lugano v Dukagjini: numbers & prediction