Value bet: Derby to win @ 2.66 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDerby to win ✗44% · @2.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.69
Charlton vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 15 August the Championship brings Charlton against Derby at The Valley. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Charlton are 19th, lower half, on 17 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10.
Current form
Charlton, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Cheltenham, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Derby, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Lincoln, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Charlton, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Derby.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Charlton 1.1 xG, Derby 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Charlton 33%, draw 23%, Derby 44%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Derby to win @2.66 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Charlton 1–1 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Charlton33%fair 3.04 · @2.66
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.15
Derby44%fair 2.28 · @2.66
2.43Expected goals
1.10Charlton xG
1.33Derby xG
51%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Charlton 1.1 – 1.3 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derby to win✗
44%
2.28
2.66 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Draw no bet
Derby (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Charlton +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Derby to score first✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derby / FT Derby✗
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.69
–
Recent results
Charlton – last 6
WLWLWD
8 Aug
@ Cheltenham
3–1
W
1 Aug
@ Reading
0–3
L
28 Jul
@ Colchester
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ AFC Wimbledon
0–2
L
18 Jul
@ Gillingham
1–0
W
10 Jul
@ Maribor
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Derby – last 6
LDLWLL
8 Aug
vs Lincoln
1–2
L
4 Aug
@ Rotherham
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Burton Albion
0–1
L
31 Jul
@ Mansfield Town
3–1
W
28 Jul
vs Valencia
1–2
L
24 Jul
@ SC Freiburg
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Charlton and Derby.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Charlton vs Derby?
On our numbers Charlton have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Derby 44%.
How many goals will there be in Charlton vs Derby?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Charlton vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Charlton 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Charlton vs Derby?
Charlton vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Valley.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
