Value bet: Swansea to win @ 3.00 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultStoke City to win ✗41% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.16
Stoke City vs Swansea: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 15 August the Championship brings Stoke City against Swansea at bet365 Stadium. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Stoke City are 3rd, among the top four, on 29 points after 15 matches; Swansea are 6th (upper half) with 26. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Stoke City, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Oldham, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Swansea, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Birmingham, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Stoke City, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Swansea.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Stoke City 1.3 xG, Swansea 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Stoke City 41%, draw 23%, Swansea 37%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Swansea to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Stoke City 1–1 Swansea. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Stoke City41%fair 2.46 · @2.32
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.25
Swansea37%fair 2.74 · @3.00
2.47Expected goals
1.28Stoke City xG
1.19Swansea xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Stoke City 1.3 – 1.2 Swansea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Stoke City to win✗
41%
2.46
2.32
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.83
Draw no bet
Stoke City (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Swansea +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Stoke City to score first
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stoke City / FT Stoke City✗
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.16
–
Recent results
Stoke City – last 6
WDWWDL
8 Aug
vs Oldham
2–0
W
1 Aug
vs Valencia
1–1
D
28 Jul
vs Everton
1–0
W
21 Jul
@ Chester
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Crewe
1–1
D
10 Jul
vs SC Braga
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Swansea – last 6
LWLWLD
8 Aug
vs Birmingham
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Leganes
1–0
W
28 Jul
@ Merthyr Town
0–3
L
24 Jul
vs Udinese
2–0
W
21 Jul
vs VfL Bochum
0–2
L
18 Jul
vs Holstein Kiel
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stoke City and Swansea.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Stoke City vs Swansea?
On our numbers Stoke City have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Swansea 37%.
How many goals will there be in Stoke City vs Swansea?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Swansea?
Our predicted score is Stoke City 1–1 Swansea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Stoke City vs Swansea?
Stoke City vs Swansea (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at bet365 Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
