Value bet: Southampton to win @ 2.74 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSouthampton to win ✗40% · @2.74
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.67
Birmingham vs Southampton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Birmingham welcome Southampton to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park for a Championship fixture on Tuesday 1 September (20:00 WAT). In the table, Birmingham are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 15 matches; Southampton are 7th (upper half) with 24.
Current form
Birmingham, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Wrexham, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Southampton, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Millwall, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Southampton, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Birmingham.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Birmingham 1.5 xG, Southampton 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Birmingham 37%, draw 22%, Southampton 40%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Southampton to win @2.74 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Birmingham 1–1 Southampton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Birmingham37%fair 2.67 · @2.46
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.35
Southampton40%fair 2.49 · @2.74
3.02Expected goals
1.48Birmingham xG
1.54Southampton xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Birmingham 1.5 – 1.5 Southampton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Southampton to win✗
40%
2.49
2.74 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.65
Draw no bet
Southampton (draw no bet)
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Birmingham +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.12
First team to score
Southampton to score first✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Southampton / FT Southampton✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.67
–
Recent results
Birmingham – last 6
WLDDWD
28 Aug
@ Wrexham
2–1
W
25 Aug
vs Brentford
1–6
L
22 Aug
vs Bristol City
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Sheffield Utd
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Swansea
1–0
W
31 Jul
vs Barcelona
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Southampton – last 6
WLWLWW
29 Aug
vs Millwall
5–1
W
25 Aug
vs West Ham
1–4
L
22 Aug
vs Stoke City
3–1
W
16 Aug
@ Watford
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Colchester
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Preußen Münster
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and Southampton.
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Southampton?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Birmingham vs Southampton?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Southampton 40%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Southampton?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Southampton?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–1 Southampton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs Southampton?
Birmingham vs Southampton (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
