Value bet: Derby to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPortsmouth to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.21
Portsmouth vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Tuesday 1 September: Portsmouth v Derby in the Championship, played at Fratton Park. In the table, Portsmouth are 11th, upper half, on 22 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Portsmouth, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Bristol City, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Derby, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Swansea, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Portsmouth, collecting 0.8 points per game to 0.3 for Derby.
Head to head
When they last met (16 Mar 2026) it ended Portsmouth 0–1 Derby.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Portsmouth 1.6 xG, Derby 1.4 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 53% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Portsmouth 43%, draw 22%, Derby 34%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Derby to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 34%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Portsmouth 1–1 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Portsmouth43%fair 2.32 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.35
Derby34%fair 2.91 · @3.25
3.03Expected goals
1.62Portsmouth xG
1.42Derby xG
63%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Portsmouth 1.6 – 1.4 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Portsmouth vs Derby?
On our numbers Portsmouth have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derby 34%.
How many goals will there be in Portsmouth vs Derby?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Portsmouth 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Fratton Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
