Burnley 61%Draw 24%Bristol City 16%Expected goals 2.33 – 1.17
84%
Betarazi pick
Burnley or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Burnley to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBurnley to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceBurnley or draw ✗84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.67
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.43
Burnley vs Bristol City: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bristol City travel to face Burnley on Saturday 5 September in the Championship, with Turf Moor the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Burnley are 22nd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Bristol City are 17th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Burnley, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Middlesbrough, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Bristol City, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Preston, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Bristol City, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Burnley.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burnley 2.3 xG, Bristol City 1.2 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 63% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burnley 61%, draw 24%, Bristol City 16%.
Lower-risk option: Burnley or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Burnley to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Burnley or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burnley 2–1 Bristol City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burnley61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.40
Bristol City16%fair 6.42 · @3.70
3.50Expected goals
2.33Burnley xG
1.17Bristol City xG
63%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–18%
2–08%
3–17%
1–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Burnley 2.3 – 1.2 Bristol City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Burnley to win✗
61%
1.65
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Burnley or draw✗
84%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.67
Draw no bet
Burnley (draw no bet)✗
80%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Burnley -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
First team to score
Burnley to score first
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Burnley ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Burnley / FT Burnley✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.43
–
Recent results
Burnley – last 6
DLDLDD
2 Sep
vs Middlesbrough
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Norwich
1–4
L
26 Aug
@ Bradford
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ West Brom
1–3
L
16 Aug
vs West Ham
2–2
D
8 Aug
vs Notts County
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bristol City – last 6
WWDLLD
1 Sep
@ Preston
3–1
W
29 Aug
vs Portsmouth
2–1
W
22 Aug
@ Birmingham
2–2
D
15 Aug
vs Millwall
0–2
L
6 Aug
vs Walsall
0–1
L
1 Aug
@ Exeter City
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Bristol City.
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our pick is Burnley or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Burnley vs Bristol City?
On our numbers Burnley have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bristol City 16%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Bristol City?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Bristol City?
Our predicted score is Burnley 2–1 Bristol City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Bristol City?
Burnley vs Bristol City (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
