Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
2
Value bet: Bolton to win @ 3.70 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMillwall to win ✓46% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.89
Millwall vs Bolton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 5 September the Championship brings Millwall against Bolton at The Den. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Millwall are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Bolton are 18th (lower half) with 17. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Millwall, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Wrexham, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Bolton, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Sheffield Utd, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Millwall, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Bolton.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Millwall 1.6 xG, Bolton 1.3 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Millwall 46%, draw 23%, Bolton 32%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Bolton to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.67, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Millwall 1–1 Bolton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Millwall46%fair 2.20 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.37 · @3.20
Bolton32%fair 3.17 · @3.70
2.88Expected goals
1.60Millwall xG
1.28Bolton xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–27%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Millwall 1.6 – 1.3 Bolton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Millwall to win✓
46%
2.20
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Millwall (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Bolton +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
First team to score
Millwall to score first✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Millwall / FT Millwall✓
27%
3.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.89
–
Recent results
Millwall – last 6
LLWWWD
2 Sep
vs Wrexham
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Southampton
1–5
L
25 Aug
@ Cambridge United
1–0
W
22 Aug
vs Norwich
3–0
W
15 Aug
@ Bristol City
2–0
W
8 Aug
@ QPR
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bolton – last 6
LLDWLW
1 Sep
@ Sheffield Utd
2–3
L
29 Aug
vs Lincoln
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ QPR
0–0
D
15 Aug
vs Preston
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Sheffield Wednesday
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs NAC Breda
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Millwall and Bolton.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Millwall vs Bolton?
On our numbers Millwall have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bolton 32%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Bolton?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Bolton?
Our predicted score is Millwall 1–1 Bolton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Bolton?
Millwall vs Bolton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
