Derby vs Birmingham: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Birmingham travel to face Derby on Saturday 12 September in the Championship, with Pride Park the venue – the ball rolls at 12:30 WAT. In the table, Derby are 23rd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Birmingham are 1st (leading the league) with 29. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Derby, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to West Brom, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Birmingham, last 5: LDDWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Norwich, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Derby 1.1 xG, Birmingham 1.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Derby 28%, draw 23%, Birmingham 49%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derby 1–1 Birmingham. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Derby28%fair 3.57 · @3.60
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.10
Birmingham49%fair 2.05 · @2.05
2.67Expected goals
1.11Derby xG
1.56Birmingham xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–28%
1–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Derby 1.1 – 1.6 Birmingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✓
49%
2.05
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.75
Draw no bet
Birmingham (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Derby +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Birmingham to score first
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✗
29%
3.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.69
–
Recent results
Derby – last 6
LLWLDL
9 Sep
vs West Brom
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ West Ham
0–3
L
1 Sep
@ Portsmouth
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Swansea
0–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cardiff
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Charlton
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Birmingham – last 6
LDDWLD
9 Sep
@ Norwich
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Wolves
2–2
D
1 Sep
vs Southampton
1–1
D
28 Aug
@ Wrexham
2–1
W
25 Aug
vs Brentford
1–6
L
22 Aug
vs Bristol City
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derby and Birmingham.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Derby vs Birmingham?
On our numbers Derby have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Birmingham 49%.
How many goals will there be in Derby vs Birmingham?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derby vs Birmingham?
Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Birmingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Derby vs Birmingham?
Derby vs Birmingham (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
