Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Burnley to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSwansea to win ✓45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.14
Swansea vs Burnley: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Swansea v Burnley in the Championship, played at Swansea.com Stadium. In the table, Swansea are 6th, upper half, on 26 points after 15 matches; Burnley are 22nd (in the drop zone) with 10. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Swansea, last 5: LDWWD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Southampton, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Burnley, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Wrexham, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Swansea, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.5 for Burnley.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Swansea 1.5 xG, Burnley 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Swansea 45%, draw 22%, Burnley 33%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Burnley to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Swansea 1–1 Burnley. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Swansea45%fair 2.22 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.30
Burnley33%fair 3.07 · @3.40
2.67Expected goals
1.47Swansea xG
1.20Burnley xG
60%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: Swansea 1.5 – 1.2 Burnley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Swansea to win✓
45%
2.22
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.67
Draw no bet
Swansea (draw no bet)✓
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Burnley +1 (Asian handicap)✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Swansea to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Swansea / FT Swansea✓
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.14
–
Recent results
Swansea – last 6
LDWWDW
8 Sep
@ Southampton
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Wrexham
0–0
D
1 Sep
vs Watford
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Derby
3–0
W
22 Aug
vs Sheffield Utd
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ Stoke City
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Burnley – last 6
DLDLDL
8 Sep
@ Wrexham
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Bristol City
1–2
L
2 Sep
vs Middlesbrough
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Norwich
1–4
L
26 Aug
@ Bradford
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ West Brom
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swansea and Burnley.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Swansea vs Burnley?
On our numbers Swansea have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burnley 33%.
How many goals will there be in Swansea vs Burnley?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Swansea vs Burnley?
Our predicted score is Swansea 1–1 Burnley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Swansea vs Burnley?
Swansea vs Burnley (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Swansea.com Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
