Value bet: Birmingham to win @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBirmingham to win ✓50% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.54
Lincoln vs Birmingham: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Birmingham travel to face Lincoln on Saturday 31 October in the Championship, with LNER stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 13:30 WAT. In the table, Lincoln are 21st, lower half, on 15 points after 15 matches; Birmingham are 1st (leading the league) with 29. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lincoln, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Burnley, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Birmingham, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cardiff, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Birmingham, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Lincoln.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lincoln 1.1 xG, Birmingham 1.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lincoln 27%, draw 23%, Birmingham 50%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Birmingham to win @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.70). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lincoln 1–1 Birmingham. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lincoln27%fair 3.70 · @3.30
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.30
Birmingham50%fair 1.99 · @2.15
2.71Expected goals
1.10Lincoln xG
1.61Birmingham xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Lincoln 1.1 – 1.6 Birmingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Birmingham to win✓
50%
1.99
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Draw no bet
Birmingham (draw no bet)✓
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Lincoln +1 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Birmingham to score first✓
55%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham✓
30%
3.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.54
–
Recent results
Lincoln – last 6
WDLLLW
24 Oct
vs Burnley
4–1
W
17 Oct
@ Millwall
2–2
D
14 Oct
vs West Ham
0–6
L
10 Oct
@ Sheffield Utd
0–3
L
19 Sep
vs Swansea
1–2
L
15 Sep
@ Bristol City
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Birmingham – last 6
LWWWDW
24 Oct
@ Cardiff
0–1
L
17 Oct
vs QPR
3–0
W
13 Oct
vs Preston
4–0
W
10 Oct
@ West Brom
1–0
W
19 Sep
vs Middlesbrough
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Derby
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lincoln and Birmingham.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Lincoln vs Birmingham?
On our numbers Lincoln have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Birmingham 50%.
How many goals will there be in Lincoln vs Birmingham?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lincoln vs Birmingham?
Our predicted score is Lincoln 1–1 Birmingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Lincoln vs Birmingham?
Lincoln vs Birmingham (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at LNER stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
