Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultMillwall to win ✓63% · @1.67
Double chanceMillwall or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09
Millwall vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Saturday 31 October: Millwall v Derby in the Championship, played at The Den. In the table, Millwall are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10.
Current form
Millwall, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Portsmouth, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Derby, last 5: DLLDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sheffield Utd, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Millwall, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Derby.
Head to head
When they last met (10 Mar 2026) it ended Millwall 1–0 Derby.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Millwall 2.0 xG, Derby 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Millwall 63%, draw 22%, Derby 16%.
Lower-risk option: Millwall or draw (84%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Millwall to win (63%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.60, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Millwall 2–0 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Millwall63%fair 1.60 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.80
Derby16%fair 6.29 · @4.80
2.92Expected goals
2.01Millwall xG
0.91Derby xG
60%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Millwall 2.0 – 0.9 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Millwall to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
On our numbers Millwall have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derby 16%.
How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Derby?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Millwall 2–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Millwall vs Derby?
Millwall vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The Den.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
