Value bet: Rochdale to win @ 2.28 – our chance 49% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRochdale to win ✗49% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.86
Newport County vs Rochdale: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Rochdale travel to face Newport County on Saturday 15 August in the League Two, with Rodney Parade the venue – the ball rolls at 12:30 WAT. In the table, Newport County are 14th, lower half, on 18 points after 14 matches; Rochdale are 20th (lower half) with 15. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Newport County, last 5: DLWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with AFC Wimbledon, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Rochdale, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Bradford, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Newport County 1.1 xG, Rochdale 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Newport County 29%, draw 23%, Rochdale 49%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Rochdale to win @2.28 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newport County 1–1 Rochdale. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Newport County29%fair 3.49 · @3.05
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.30
Rochdale49%fair 2.05 · @2.28
2.57Expected goals
1.07Newport County xG
1.50Rochdale xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Newport County 1.1 – 1.5 Rochdale expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rochdale to win✗
49%
2.05
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.73
Draw no bet
Rochdale (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.59
–
Asian handicap
Newport County +1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.09
First team to score
Rochdale to score first✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rochdale / FT Rochdale✗
28%
3.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.86
–
Recent results
Newport County – last 6
DLWLDL
8 Aug
@ AFC Wimbledon
1–1
D
4 Aug
vs AS Roma
1–4
L
1 Aug
@ Yeovil Town
2–1
W
28 Jul
vs Reading
0–4
L
25 Jul
@ Bath City
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Gloucester City
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Rochdale – last 6
LDLDDL
8 Aug
@ Bradford
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ Tranmere
2–2
D
28 Jul
vs FC Halifax Town
2–3
L
25 Jul
vs Farnham Town
2–2
D
19 Jul
vs Al-Rayyan SC
3–3
D
14 Jul
@ United of Manchester
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newport County and Rochdale.
What is the prediction for Newport County vs Rochdale?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Newport County vs Rochdale?
On our numbers Newport County have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Rochdale 49%.
How many goals will there be in Newport County vs Rochdale?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newport County vs Rochdale?
Our predicted score is Newport County 1–1 Rochdale, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Newport County vs Rochdale?
Newport County vs Rochdale (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Rodney Parade.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
