Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Crewe to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCrewe to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceCrewe or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.95
Crewe vs Rochdale: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Crewe v Rochdale in the League Two, played at Alexandra Stadium. In the table, Crewe are 4th, among the top four, on 22 points after 14 matches; Rochdale are 20th (lower half) with 15.
Current form
Crewe, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Swindon Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Rochdale, last 5: DLWWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Tranmere, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Crewe 1.4 xG, Rochdale 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Crewe 59%, draw 21%, Rochdale 19%.
Lower-risk option: Crewe or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Crewe to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Crewe or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Crewe 1–0 Rochdale. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Crewe59%fair 1.69 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.40
Rochdale19%fair 5.16 · @3.90
2.10Expected goals
1.45Crewe xG
0.65Rochdale xG
53%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–013%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Crewe 1.4 – 0.7 Rochdale expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Crewe to win✓
59%
1.69
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Crewe or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.67
Draw no bet
Crewe (draw no bet)✓
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Rochdale +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Crewe to score first✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Crewe / FT Crewe✓
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.95
–
Recent results
Crewe – last 6
WDWDWD
10 Oct
@ Swindon Town
1–0
W
6 Oct
@ Blackpool
2–2
D
3 Oct
vs Bristol Rovers
3–1
W
26 Sep
@ Rotherham
1–1
D
22 Sep
vs Aston Villa U21
4–1
W
19 Sep
vs Shrewsbury
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Rochdale – last 6
DLWWDW
10 Oct
@ Tranmere
1–1
D
6 Oct
@ Huddersfield
0–5
L
3 Oct
vs Swindon Town
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Fleetwood Town
2–1
W
22 Sep
vs Liverpool U21
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Oldham
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Crewe and Rochdale.
Our pick is Crewe or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Crewe vs Rochdale?
On our numbers Crewe have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Rochdale 19%.
How many goals will there be in Crewe vs Rochdale?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Crewe vs Rochdale?
Our predicted score is Crewe 1–0 Rochdale, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Crewe vs Rochdale?
Crewe vs Rochdale (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Alexandra Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
