Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
1
Value bet: Rochdale to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRochdale to win ✗40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.52
Rochdale vs Grimsby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Grimsby travel to face Rochdale on Tuesday 20 October in the League Two, with Spotland the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Rochdale are 20th, lower half, on 15 points after 14 matches; Grimsby are 6th (upper half) with 20.
Current form
Rochdale, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Crewe, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Grimsby, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Northampton, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Rochdale, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.2 for Grimsby.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Rochdale 1.2 xG, Grimsby 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Rochdale 40%, draw 21%, Grimsby 39%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Rochdale to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rochdale 1–1 Grimsby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Rochdale40%fair 2.50 · @2.75
Draw21%fair 4.79 · @3.50
Grimsby39%fair 2.56 · @2.15
2.45Expected goals
1.23Rochdale xG
1.22Grimsby xG
59%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Rochdale 1.2 – 1.2 Grimsby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rochdale to win✗
40%
2.50
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
1.60
Draw no bet
Rochdale (draw no bet)
51%
1.98
–
Asian handicap
Grimsby +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Rochdale to score first✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rochdale / FT Rochdale✗
21%
4.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.52
–
Recent results
Rochdale – last 6
LDLWWD
17 Oct
@ Crewe
2–3
L
10 Oct
@ Tranmere
1–1
D
6 Oct
@ Huddersfield
0–5
L
3 Oct
vs Swindon Town
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Fleetwood Town
2–1
W
22 Sep
vs Liverpool U21
3–3
D
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Grimsby – last 6
LLDLLL
17 Oct
vs Northampton
0–2
L
10 Oct
@ Port Vale
0–1
L
6 Oct
vs Burton Albion
0–0
D
3 Oct
vs Shrewsbury
1–2
L
26 Sep
@ Newport County
1–2
L
22 Sep
@ Notts County
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rochdale and Grimsby.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Rochdale vs Grimsby?
On our numbers Rochdale have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Grimsby 39%.
How many goals will there be in Rochdale vs Grimsby?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rochdale vs Grimsby?
Our predicted score is Rochdale 1–1 Grimsby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Rochdale vs Grimsby?
Rochdale vs Grimsby (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Spotland.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
