Atlético Baleares 59%Draw 20%Poblense 21%Expected goals 1.59 – 0.79
59%
Betarazi pick
Atlético Baleares to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 52% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtlético Baleares to win ✓59% · @1.67
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.82
Atlético Baleares vs Poblense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Atlético Baleares welcome Poblense to Estadio Balear for a Segunda División RFEF Group 3 fixture on Sunday 4 October (11:00 WAT). In the table, Atlético Baleares are 10th, lower half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Poblense are 11th (lower half) with 13. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Atlético Baleares, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cieza, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Poblense, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Valencia II, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Aug 2026) it ended Poblense 1–0 Atlético Baleares. The last 2 head-to-heads: Atlético Baleares 0 wins, Poblense 1, draws 1. Those games averaged 0.5 goals.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlético Baleares 1.6 xG, Poblense 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlético Baleares 59%, draw 20%, Poblense 21%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.15 – the bookmaker implies 47%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atlético Baleares to win (59%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlético Baleares 1–0 Poblense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlético Baleares59%fair 1.70 · @1.67
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.40
Poblense21%fair 4.78 · @4.60
2.38Expected goals
1.59Atlético Baleares xG
0.79Poblense xG
52%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atlético Baleares 1.6 – 0.8 Poblense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atlético Baleares vs Poblense?
Our pick is Atlético Baleares to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Atlético Baleares vs Poblense?
On our numbers Atlético Baleares have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Poblense 21%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Baleares vs Poblense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Baleares vs Poblense?
Our predicted score is Atlético Baleares 1–0 Poblense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Atlético Baleares vs Poblense?
Atlético Baleares vs Poblense (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Balear.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
