Valencia II 62%Draw 20%Peña Deportiva 18%Expected goals 1.22 – 0.41
82%
Betarazi pick
Valencia II or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Valencia II to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultValencia II to win ✓62% · @1.75
Double chanceValencia II or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗24% · fair 4.19
Valencia II vs Peña Deportiva: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Valencia II welcome Peña Deportiva for a Segunda División RFEF Group 3 fixture on Sunday 4 October (10:30 WAT). In the table, Valencia II are 17th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 9 matches; Peña Deportiva are 18th (in the drop zone) with 7. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Valencia II, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Poblense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Peña Deportiva, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Real Murcia II, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Valencia II 1.2 xG, Peña Deportiva 0.4 xG – a total near 1.6. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 78%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Valencia II 62%, draw 20%, Peña Deportiva 18%.
Lower-risk option: Valencia II or draw (82%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Valencia II to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Valencia II or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Valencia II 1–0 Peña Deportiva. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Valencia II62%fair 1.61 · @1.75
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.50
Peña Deportiva18%fair 5.64 · @3.80
1.63Expected goals
1.22Valencia II xG
0.41Peña Deportiva xG
46%Both score
22%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–024%
0–020%
2–015%
1–110%
0–18%
2–16%
From our goals model: Valencia II 1.2 – 0.4 Peña Deportiva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valencia II to win✓
62%
1.61
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Valencia II or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.91
Draw no bet
Valencia II (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Peña Deportiva +1 (Asian handicap)
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
Valencia II to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valencia II / FT Valencia II✗
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
24%
4.19
–
Recent results
Valencia II – last 6
LLLDLW
27 Sep
@ Poblense
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Castellón II
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Ucam Murcia
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Mallorca II
1–1
D
3 May
@ Olot
0–2
L
26 Apr
vs Espanyol II
3–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Peña Deportiva – last 6
LLDLLW
27 Sep
vs Real Murcia II
0–2
L
20 Sep
@ Elche II
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Yeclano
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Deportiva Minera
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Ibiza
0–5
L
20 Jun
vs Arenas Armilla
5–2
W
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valencia II and Peña Deportiva.
What is the prediction for Valencia II vs Peña Deportiva?
Our pick is Valencia II or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Valencia II vs Peña Deportiva?
On our numbers Valencia II have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Peña Deportiva 18%.
How many goals will there be in Valencia II vs Peña Deportiva?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 22% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valencia II vs Peña Deportiva?
Our predicted score is Valencia II 1–0 Peña Deportiva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Valencia II vs Peña Deportiva?
Valencia II vs Peña Deportiva (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
