Castellonense 61%Draw 21%Real Murcia II 18%Expected goals 1.71 – 0.79
82%
Betarazi pick
Castellonense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Castellonense to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCastellonense to win ✓61% · @1.91
Double chanceCastellonense or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.11
Castellonense vs Real Murcia II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Real Murcia II travel to face Castellonense on Sunday 4 October in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 – the ball rolls at 10:45 WAT. In the table, Castellonense are 4th, among the top four, on 16 points after 9 matches; Real Murcia II are 15th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Castellonense, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lorca Deportiva, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Real Murcia II, last 5: WLLLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Peña Deportiva, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Castellonense, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Real Murcia II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Castellonense 1.7 xG, Real Murcia II 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Castellonense 61%, draw 21%, Real Murcia II 18%.
Lower-risk option: Castellonense or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Castellonense to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Castellonense or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.22, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Castellonense 1–0 Real Murcia II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Castellonense61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.30
Real Murcia II18%fair 5.51 · @3.50
2.50Expected goals
1.71Castellonense xG
0.79Real Murcia II xG
48%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Castellonense 1.7 – 0.8 Real Murcia II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellonense to win✓
61%
1.65
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Castellonense or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.85
Draw no bet
Castellonense (draw no bet)✓
77%
1.30
–
Asian handicap
Real Murcia II +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Castellonense to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellonense / FT Castellonense✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.11
–
Recent results
Castellonense – last 6
LWWWDW
27 Sep
@ Lorca Deportiva
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Cieza
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Poblense
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Ucam Murcia
2–1
W
26 Apr
vs Saguntino
1–1
D
29 Mar
@ Crevillente
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Real Murcia II – last 6
WLLLDW
27 Sep
@ Peña Deportiva
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Mallorca II
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ La Nucía
1–5
L
5 Sep
vs Orihuela
1–2
L
20 Jun
@ Pamplona
1–1
D
14 Jun
vs Pamplona
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castellonense and Real Murcia II.
What is the prediction for Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
Our pick is Castellonense or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
On our numbers Castellonense have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Murcia II 18%.
How many goals will there be in Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
Our predicted score is Castellonense 1–0 Real Murcia II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Castellonense vs Real Murcia II?
Castellonense vs Real Murcia II (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 10:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
