Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.37 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.37Odds
1
Value bet: Castellonense to win @ 2.69 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCastellonense to win ✗42% · @2.69
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗80% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.45
Castellonense vs Alcoyano: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:45 WAT, Sunday 8 November: Castellonense v Alcoyano in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3. In the table, Castellonense are 4th, among the top four, on 16 points after 9 matches; Alcoyano are 7th (upper half) with 14. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Castellonense, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Valencia II, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Alcoyano, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Real Murcia II, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Castellonense 1.2 xG, Alcoyano 1.1 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Castellonense 42%, draw 23%, Alcoyano 35%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.92.
Price worth noting: Castellonense to win @2.69 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.37). Most likely score in line with that pick: Castellonense 1–1 Alcoyano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Castellonense42%fair 2.39 · @2.69
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.02
Alcoyano35%fair 2.87 · @2.41
2.28Expected goals
1.21Castellonense xG
1.07Alcoyano xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Castellonense 1.2 – 1.1 Alcoyano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellonense to win✗
42%
2.39
2.69 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.92
Draw no bet
Castellonense (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Alcoyano +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.37
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
80%
1.26
1.15
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Castellonense to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellonense / FT Castellonense✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.45
–
Recent results
Castellonense – last 6
DDWLWL
31 Oct
@ Valencia II
1–1
D
27 Oct
vs Almeria
0–0
D
24 Oct
@ Intercity
2–0
W
11 Oct
@ Deportiva Minera
2–3
L
4 Oct
vs Real Murcia II
3–0
W
27 Sep
@ Lorca Deportiva
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alcoyano – last 6
DLLWWW
1 Nov
vs Real Murcia II
1–1
D
25 Oct
@ Atlético Baleares
0–2
L
11 Oct
@ Ucam Murcia
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Mallorca II
1–0
W
27 Sep
vs Deportiva Minera
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Poblense
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castellonense and Alcoyano.
What is the prediction for Castellonense vs Alcoyano?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.
Who will win Castellonense vs Alcoyano?
On our numbers Castellonense have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alcoyano 35%.
How many goals will there be in Castellonense vs Alcoyano?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castellonense vs Alcoyano?
Our predicted score is Castellonense 1–1 Alcoyano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Castellonense vs Alcoyano?
Castellonense vs Alcoyano (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 11:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
