Value bet: Badajoz to win @ 2.88 – our chance 41% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBadajoz to win ✗41% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 6.96
Las Palmas II vs Badajoz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Las Palmas II welcome Badajoz for a Segunda División RFEF Group 4 fixture on Sunday 27 September (12:00 WAT). In the table, Las Palmas II are 18th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 10 matches; Badajoz are 4th (among the top four) with 17. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Las Palmas II, last 5: WLLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Linares Deportivo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Badajoz, last 5: LWWDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Real Betis II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Badajoz, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Las Palmas II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Las Palmas II 0.9 xG, Badajoz 1.1 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Las Palmas II 35%, draw 24%, Badajoz 41%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Badajoz to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (53%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Las Palmas II 0–1 Badajoz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Las Palmas II35%fair 2.89 · @2.38
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @2.90
Badajoz41%fair 2.44 · @2.88
2.00Expected goals
0.94Las Palmas II xG
1.06Badajoz xG
47%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–014%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Las Palmas II 0.9 – 1.1 Badajoz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Badajoz to win✗
41%
2.44
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Draw no bet
Badajoz (draw no bet)
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Las Palmas II +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Badajoz to score first✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
6.96
–
Recent results
Las Palmas II – last 6
WLLDWL
20 Sep
@ Linares Deportivo
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Don Benito
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Real Betis II
0–1
L
3 May
@ Socuéllamos
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Orihuela
2–1
W
19 Apr
@ Getafe II
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Badajoz – last 6
LWWDWD
20 Sep
vs Real Betis II
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Xerez
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Tenerife II
2–1
W
20 Jun
@ Cuarte
1–1
D
14 Jun
vs Cuarte
2–1
W
7 Jun
vs Moralo
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Palmas II and Badajoz.
What is the prediction for Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
On our numbers Las Palmas II have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Badajoz 41%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas II 0–1 Badajoz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
Las Palmas II vs Badajoz (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
