Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultThionville Lusitanos to win ✓46% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.31
Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 20 August the National 1 brings Bourg-en-bresse 01 against Thionville Lusitanos at Stade Marcel-Verchere. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Bourg-en-bresse 01 are 18th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 12 matches; Thionville Lusitanos are 11th (lower half) with 16.
Current form
Bourg-en-bresse 01, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Valenciennes, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Thionville Lusitanos, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Caen, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Thionville Lusitanos, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Bourg-en-bresse 01.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Bourg-en-bresse 01 1.6 xG, Thionville Lusitanos 1.9 xG – a total near 3.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Bourg-en-bresse 01 31%, draw 23%, Thionville Lusitanos 46%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–1 Thionville Lusitanos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Bourg-en-bresse 0131%fair 3.21 · @2.88
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.20
Thionville Lusitanos46%fair 2.17 · @2.25
3.50Expected goals
1.57Bourg-en-bresse 01 xG
1.93Thionville Lusitanos xG
64%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
1–36%
From our goals model: Bourg-en-bresse 01 1.6 – 1.9 Thionville Lusitanos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Thionville Lusitanos to win✓
46%
2.17
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.60
Draw no bet
Thionville Lusitanos (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Bourg-en-bresse 01 +1 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
First team to score
Thionville Lusitanos to score first✓
54%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Thionville Lusitanos ahead at half-time✓
37%
2.73
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Thionville Lusitanos / FT Thionville Lusitanos✓
29%
3.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.31
–
Recent results
Bourg-en-bresse 01 – last 6
LWLDLL
14 Aug
@ Valenciennes
0–2
L
7 Aug
vs Villefranche
3–2
W
22 Jul
vs Dijon
1–2
L
11 Jul
@ Grenoble
0–0
D
24 Apr
@ Sochaux
1–2
L
17 Apr
vs Caen
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Thionville Lusitanos – last 6
WWDWDW
14 Aug
vs Caen
4–3
W
7 Aug
@ Aubagne
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Nancy
2–2
D
11 Jul
@ Progres Niederkorn
5–0
W
29 Mar
vs Beauvais
1–1
D
25 Mar
@ Blois
3–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bourg-en-bresse 01 and Thionville Lusitanos.
What is the prediction for Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
On our numbers Bourg-en-bresse 01 have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Thionville Lusitanos 46%.
How many goals will there be in Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Our predicted score is Bourg-en-bresse 01 1–1 Thionville Lusitanos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Bourg-en-bresse 01 vs Thionville Lusitanos (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Marcel-Verchere.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
