Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Picks by market
ResultCaen to win ✓60% · @1.70
Double chanceCaen or draw ✓81% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.21
Caen vs Aubagne: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Aubagne travel to face Caen on Thursday 20 August in the National 1 – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Caen are 3rd, among the top four, on 22 points after 12 matches; Aubagne are 17th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Caen, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Thionville Lusitanos, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. The attack is flying at 3.2 goals per game.
Aubagne, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Bastia, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Caen, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.0 for Aubagne.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Caen 2.2 xG, Aubagne 1.2 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Caen 60%, draw 21%, Aubagne 19%.
Lower-risk option: Caen or draw (81%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caen 2–1 Aubagne. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Caen60%fair 1.67 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.60
Aubagne19%fair 5.25 · @4.20
3.31Expected goals
2.16Caen xG
1.15Aubagne xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Caen 2.2 – 1.2 Aubagne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caen to win✓
60%
1.67
1.70
Double chance
Caen or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.62
Draw no bet
Caen (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Caen -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.42
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
First team to score
Caen to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Caen ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caen / FT Caen✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Caen – last 6
LWDWWL
14 Aug
@ Thionville Lusitanos
3–4
L
7 Aug
vs Valenciennes
4–0
W
31 Jul
vs Dieppe
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Al Wakrah
4–1
W
18 Jul
vs Laval
4–2
W
15 Jul
vs Gobelins
3–4
L
3.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Aubagne – last 6
LLLLLL
14 Aug
vs Bastia
0–1
L
7 Aug
vs Thionville Lusitanos
0–3
L
11 Jul
@ Montpellier
2–3
L
1 May
vs Stade Briochin
1–2
L
24 Apr
@ Rouen
1–3
L
17 Apr
vs Orleans
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caen and Aubagne.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Caen vs Aubagne?
On our numbers Caen have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aubagne 19%.
How many goals will there be in Caen vs Aubagne?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caen vs Aubagne?
Our predicted score is Caen 2–1 Aubagne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Caen vs Aubagne?
Caen vs Aubagne (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
