Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Concarneau to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultConcarneau to win ✓57% · @1.90
Double chanceConcarneau or draw ✓78% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Concarneau vs Villefranche: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Concarneau welcome Villefranche to Stade Guy Piriou for a National 1 fixture on Thursday 20 August (19:45 WAT). In the table, Concarneau are 6th, upper half, on 20 points after 12 matches; Villefranche are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Concarneau, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Quevilly, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Villefranche, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Gobelins, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Concarneau, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Villefranche.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Concarneau 1.7 xG, Villefranche 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Concarneau 57%, draw 22%, Villefranche 22%.
Lower-risk option: Concarneau or draw (78%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Concarneau to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Concarneau or draw (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Concarneau 1–0 Villefranche. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Concarneau57%fair 1.76 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.30
Villefranche22%fair 4.65 · @3.70
2.68Expected goals
1.73Concarneau xG
0.95Villefranche xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Concarneau 1.7 – 0.9 Villefranche expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Concarneau to win✓
57%
1.76
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Concarneau or draw✓
78%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.73
Draw no bet
Concarneau (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.38
–
Asian handicap
Villefranche +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Concarneau to score first✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Concarneau / FT Concarneau✓
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Recent results
Concarneau – last 6
DLWWWD
14 Aug
@ Quevilly
1–1
D
7 Aug
vs Orleans
0–2
L
31 Jul
vs Pontivy GSI
5–1
W
25 Jul
@ Laval
2–1
W
22 Jul
@ Guingamp
1–0
W
18 Jul
@ Stade Brestois 29
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Villefranche – last 6
WLLLWD
14 Aug
vs Gobelins
2–0
W
7 Aug
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–3
L
15 Jul
@ Grenoble
2–5
L
24 Apr
@ Caen
0–3
L
17 Apr
vs Gobelins
3–1
W
10 Apr
@ Stade Briochin
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Concarneau and Villefranche.
What is the prediction for Concarneau vs Villefranche?
Our pick is Concarneau or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Concarneau vs Villefranche?
On our numbers Concarneau have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Villefranche 22%.
How many goals will there be in Concarneau vs Villefranche?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Concarneau vs Villefranche?
Our predicted score is Concarneau 1–0 Villefranche, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Concarneau vs Villefranche?
Concarneau vs Villefranche (National 1) kicks off on Thursday 20 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Guy Piriou.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
