Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLa Roche VF to win ✓43% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.36
Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Saturday 26 September: Thionville Lusitanos v La Roche VF in the National 1, played at Stadium Plaine. In the table, Thionville Lusitanos are 11th, lower half, on 16 points after 12 matches; La Roche VF are 1st (leading the league) with 27.
Current form
Thionville Lusitanos, last 5: DLDDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Fleury 91, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
La Roche VF, last 5: WDDWD Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Valenciennes, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours La Roche VF, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Thionville Lusitanos.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Thionville Lusitanos 1.3 xG, La Roche VF 1.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Thionville Lusitanos 35%, draw 22%, La Roche VF 43%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Thionville Lusitanos 1–1 La Roche VF. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Thionville Lusitanos35%fair 2.84 · @2.62
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.25
La Roche VF43%fair 2.32 · @2.35
2.77Expected goals
1.30Thionville Lusitanos xG
1.47La Roche VF xG
61%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Thionville Lusitanos 1.3 – 1.5 La Roche VF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
La Roche VF to win✓
43%
2.32
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
La Roche VF (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Thionville Lusitanos +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.12
First team to score
La Roche VF to score first
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT La Roche VF / FT La Roche VF✗
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
11.36
–
Recent results
Thionville Lusitanos – last 6
DLDDWW
19 Sep
@ Fleury 91
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Rouen
0–4
L
5 Sep
@ Concarneau
2–2
D
29 Aug
vs Gobelins
1–1
D
20 Aug
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Caen
4–3
W
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
La Roche VF – last 6
WDDWDW
19 Sep
vs Valenciennes
3–2
W
12 Sep
@ Villefranche
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Quevilly
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Orleans
1–0
W
20 Aug
vs Cannes
1–1
D
14 Aug
@ Amiens
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Thionville Lusitanos and La Roche VF.
What is the prediction for Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
On our numbers Thionville Lusitanos have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 22% and La Roche VF 43%.
How many goals will there be in Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
Our predicted score is Thionville Lusitanos 1–1 La Roche VF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF?
Thionville Lusitanos vs La Roche VF (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadium Plaine.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
