Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Concarneau to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultConcarneau to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceConcarneau or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.39
Concarneau vs Bastia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Concarneau welcome Bastia to Stade Guy Piriou for a National 1 fixture on Saturday 17 October (13:45 WAT). In the table, Concarneau are 6th, upper half, on 20 points after 12 matches; Bastia are 13th (lower half) with 15.
Current form
Concarneau, last 5: WDWWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Gobelins, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Bastia, last 5: DLDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Orleans, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Concarneau, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Bastia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Concarneau 1.5 xG, Bastia 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Concarneau 61%, draw 25%, Bastia 14%.
Lower-risk option: Concarneau or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Concarneau to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Concarneau or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Concarneau 1–0 Bastia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Concarneau61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @2.90
Bastia14%fair 6.99 · @3.60
2.11Expected goals
1.53Concarneau xG
0.58Bastia xG
48%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Concarneau 1.5 – 0.6 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Concarneau to win✗
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Concarneau or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.75
Draw no bet
Concarneau (draw no bet)
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Concarneau -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Concarneau to score first
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Concarneau / FT Concarneau✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.39
–
Recent results
Concarneau – last 6
WDWWDD
3 Oct
vs Gobelins
2–1
W
26 Sep
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Caen
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Aubagne
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Thionville Lusitanos
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Valenciennes
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 6
DLDWLW
1 Oct
vs Orleans
1–1
D
26 Sep
@ Gobelins
0–1
L
17 Sep
vs Cannes
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Amiens
0–3
L
27 Aug
@ Caen
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Concarneau and Bastia.
Our pick is Concarneau or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Concarneau vs Bastia?
On our numbers Concarneau have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bastia 14%.
How many goals will there be in Concarneau vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Concarneau vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Concarneau 1–0 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Concarneau vs Bastia?
Concarneau vs Bastia (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Guy Piriou.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
