Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 53% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultThe New Saints to win ✓76% · @1.04
Double chanceThe New Saints or draw ✓91% · fair 1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.25
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.27
Trefelin vs The New Saints: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Trefelin welcome The New Saints to Ynys Park for a Premier League fixture on Saturday 26 September (14:30 WAT). In the table, Trefelin are 15th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 16 matches; The New Saints are 1st (leading the league) with 44. There are 38 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Trefelin, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Briton Ferry, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
The New Saints, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Llandudno, at home. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours The New Saints, collecting 3.0 points per game to 0.5 for Trefelin.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Trefelin 0.9 xG, The New Saints 2.7 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 74% and GG at 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Trefelin 9%, draw 14%, The New Saints 76%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.25.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 3.5 goals (57%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Trefelin 1–3 The New Saints. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Trefelin9%fair 10.92 · @29.00
Draw14%fair 6.96 · @15.00
The New Saints76%fair 1.31 · @1.04
3.56Expected goals
0.85Trefelin xG
2.71The New Saints xG
53%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–210%
0–39%
1–29%
1–38%
0–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Trefelin 0.9 – 2.7 The New Saints expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
The New Saints to win✓
76%
1.31
1.04
Double chance
The New Saints or draw✓
91%
1.10
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.25 ▲
Draw no bet
The New Saints (draw no bet)✓
89%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
The New Saints -1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.04
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.17
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.80 ▲
First team to score
The New Saints to score first
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
The New Saints ahead at half-time✓
57%
1.75
–
Half-time / full-time
HT The New Saints / FT The New Saints✓
53%
1.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.27
–
Recent results
Trefelin – last 6
DLLDLD
18 Sep
@ Briton Ferry
1–1
D
15 Sep
vs Cambrian & Clydach
0–4
L
11 Sep
vs Penybont
0–1
L
4 Sep
@ Holywell
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Ammanford AFC
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
The New Saints – last 6
WWWWWW
19 Sep
vs Llandudno
2–1
W
15 Sep
vs Flint Town United
5–0
W
11 Sep
@ Airbus UK
2–0
W
5 Sep
vs Barry Town
1–0
W
31 Aug
@ Caernarfon Town
3–2
W
28 Aug
vs Colwyn Bay
5–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Trefelin and The New Saints.
What is the prediction for Trefelin vs The New Saints?
Our pick is Over 3.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Trefelin vs The New Saints?
On our numbers Trefelin have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 14% and The New Saints 76%.
How many goals will there be in Trefelin vs The New Saints?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Trefelin vs The New Saints?
Our predicted score is Trefelin 1–3 The New Saints, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Trefelin vs The New Saints?
Trefelin vs The New Saints (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Ynys Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
