Porthmadog v Caersws Prediction & Expected Goals (28 Aug) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultPorthmadog to win ✗49% · @2.10

Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.40

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.83

Porthmadog vs Caersws: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Friday 28 August the FAW Championship brings Porthmadog against Caersws. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Porthmadog are 3rd, among the top four, on 27 points after 14 matches; Caersws are 6th (upper half) with 23.

Current form

Porthmadog, last 4: WDWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Denbigh Town, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Caersws, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Rhyl, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Porthmadog, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Caersws.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Porthmadog 1.9 xG, Caersws 1.4 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 64% for three or more goals, 67% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Porthmadog 49%, draw 20%, Caersws 31%.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.40.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (67%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Porthmadog 1–1 Caersws. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Porthmadog49%fair 2.03 · @2.10

Draw20%fair 5.02 · @3.60

Caersws31%fair 3.25 · @2.70

3.29Expected goals

1.87Porthmadog xG

1.42Caersws xG

67%Both score

64%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%

2–19%

1–27%

1–07%

2–27%

2–06%

From our goals model: Porthmadog 1.9 – 1.4 Caersws expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Porthmadog to win ✗	49%	2.03	2.10
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	80%	1.25	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	67%	1.49	1.40
Draw no bet	Porthmadog (draw no bet) ✗	62%	1.62	–
Asian handicap	Caersws +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	66%	1.51	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	84%	1.19	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	64%	1.57	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	58%	1.72	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	76%	1.31	–
First team to score	Porthmadog to score first ✗	55%	1.83	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	37%	2.68	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Porthmadog / FT Porthmadog ✗	30%	3.39	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.83	–

Porthmadog – last 4

WDWW

21 Aug	@ Denbigh Town	3–2	W
15 Aug	@ Buckley Town	1–1	D
8 Aug	vs Rhyl	1–0	W
1 Aug	@ Penrhyncoch	3–1	W

2.0Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

75%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Caersws – last 6

LWDWLW

15 Aug	@ Rhyl	2–4	L
8 Aug	vs Gresford Athletic	1–0	W
1 Aug	@ Mold Alexandra	2–2	D
13 Apr	vs Buckley Town	3–2	W
6 Apr	vs Penrhyncoch	1–2	L
3 Apr	@ Gresford Athletic	2–0	W

1.8Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brickfield Rangers	14	11	1	2	+19	34
2	Newtown AFC	13	9	3	1	+19	30
3	Porthmadog	14	8	3	3	+7	27
4	Mold Alexandra	13	7	4	2	+15	25
5	Bala Town	14	7	3	4	+3	24
6	Caersws	13	6	5	2	+10	23
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	13	6	4	3	+15	22
8	Guilsfield	14	4	6	4	+1	18
9	Buckley Town	14	4	3	7	0	15
10	Holyhead Hotspur	13	4	3	6	-3	15
11	Llanuwchllyn	14	4	3	7	-9	15
12	Denbigh Town	13	4	2	7	-2	14
13	Rhyl	14	2	7	5	-3	13
14	Ruthin Town	13	3	3	7	-12	12
15	Gresford Athletic	12	2	1	9	-26	7
16	Penrhyncoch	13	0	1	12	-34	1

Team

Pts

+19

+19

+15

+10

+15

-3

-9

-2

-3

-12

-26

-34

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Porthmadog vs Caersws?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.

Who will win Porthmadog vs Caersws?

On our numbers Porthmadog have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Caersws 31%.

How many goals will there be in Porthmadog vs Caersws?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Porthmadog vs Caersws?

Our predicted score is Porthmadog 1–1 Caersws, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is Porthmadog vs Caersws?

Porthmadog vs Caersws (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Porthmadog v Caersws: numbers & prediction