Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultCaerau (Ely) to win ✗68% · @1.53
Double chanceCaerau (Ely) or draw ✗89% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.37
Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely): Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Baglan Dragons welcome Caerau (Ely) for a FAW Championship fixture on Friday 28 August (19:30 WAT). In the table, Baglan Dragons are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Caerau (Ely) are 4th (among the top four) with 22. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Baglan Dragons, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Newport City, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Caerau (Ely), last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Swansea University, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Baglan Dragons 0.9 xG, Caerau (Ely) 2.3 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 58% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Baglan Dragons 11%, draw 22%, Caerau (Ely) 68%.
Lower-risk option: Caerau (Ely) or draw (89%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Caerau (Ely) to win (68%, odds 1.53 – longer than our fair 1.48, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Baglan Dragons 0–2 Caerau (Ely). Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Baglan Dragons11%fair 9.27 · @5.00
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.75
Caerau (Ely)68%fair 1.48 · @1.53
3.25Expected goals
0.90Baglan Dragons xG
2.35Caerau (Ely) xG
58%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–211%
1–210%
0–19%
0–38%
1–18%
1–38%
From our goals model: Baglan Dragons 0.9 – 2.3 Caerau (Ely) expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✗
68%
1.48
1.53
Double chance
Caerau (Ely) or draw✗
89%
1.12
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.67
Draw no bet
Caerau (Ely) (draw no bet)✗
86%
1.16
–
Asian handicap
Caerau (Ely) -1 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
First team to score
Caerau (Ely) to score first
69%
1.44
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✗
46%
2.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.37
–
Recent results
Baglan Dragons – last 6
WWLDLD
21 Aug
@ Newport City
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Llantwit Major
1–0
W
9 Aug
vs Swansea University
0–3
L
31 Jul
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
0–0
D
3 Apr
@ Cambrian & Clydach
0–2
L
24 Mar
vs Cwmbran Celtic
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
LWDLDL
21 Aug
vs Swansea University
1–5
L
14 Aug
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
4–2
W
7 Aug
vs Ynyshir Albions
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Carmarthen Town
3–4
L
25 Jul
vs Barnstaple Town
4–4
D
21 Jul
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Baglan Dragons and Caerau (Ely).
What is the prediction for Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our pick is Caerau (Ely) to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
On our numbers Baglan Dragons have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Caerau (Ely) 68%.
How many goals will there be in Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our predicted score is Baglan Dragons 0–2 Caerau (Ely), the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely)?
Baglan Dragons vs Caerau (Ely) (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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