Pontypridd Town v Aberystwyth Town Prediction & Expected Goals (3 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAberystwyth Town to win ✓46% · @2.10

Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.50

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.64

Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Pontypridd Town welcome Aberystwyth Town to USW Sports Park for a FAW Championship fixture on Saturday 3 October (14:30 WAT). In the table, Pontypridd Town are 1st, leading the league, on 27 points after 13 matches; Aberystwyth Town are 2nd (among the top four) with 25. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Pontypridd Town, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Caerphilly Athletic, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.

Aberystwyth Town, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Swansea University, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Pontypridd Town 1.8 xG, Aberystwyth Town 2.2 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 76% for three or more goals, 70% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Pontypridd Town 33%, draw 21%, Aberystwyth Town 46%.
GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.50.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (70%, odds 1.50 – longer than our fair 1.44, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pontypridd Town 1–2 Aberystwyth Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Pontypridd Town33%fair 3.04 · @2.70

Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.50

Aberystwyth Town46%fair 2.15 · @2.10

4.00Expected goals

1.82Pontypridd Town xG

2.18Aberystwyth Town xG

70%Both score

76%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–28%

1–17%

2–27%

2–17%

1–36%

2–35%

From our goals model: Pontypridd Town 1.8 – 2.2 Aberystwyth Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Aberystwyth Town to win ✓	46%	2.15	2.10
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	79%	1.26	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	70%	1.44	1.50
Draw no bet	Aberystwyth Town (draw no bet) ✓	59%	1.71	–
Asian handicap	Pontypridd Town +1 (Asian handicap) ✗	66%	1.51	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	91%	1.10	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	76%	1.31	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Over 3.5 goals ✓	57%	1.77	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	63%	1.59	–
First team to score	Aberystwyth Town to score first ✓	53%	1.87	–
Half-time result	Aberystwyth Town ahead at half-time ✓	38%	2.66	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Aberystwyth Town / FT Aberystwyth Town ✓	29%	3.44	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	8%	12.64	–

Pontypridd Town – last 6

WLDWWW

25 Sep	@ Caerphilly Athletic	2–1	W
11 Sep	vs Afan Lido	0–1	L
28 Aug	@ Swansea University	4–4	D
21 Aug	vs Trethomas Bluebirds	2–1	W
15 Aug	@ Cardiff Draconians	4–1	W
7 Aug	vs Pontardawe Town	3–2	W

2.5Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Aberystwyth Town – last 6

DWWWWL

25 Sep	vs Swansea University	0–0	D
12 Sep	@ Caerphilly Athletic	3–2	W
31 Aug	vs llanelli AFC	4–0	W
28 Aug	vs Pontardawe Town	1–0	W
22 Aug	vs Llantwit Major	5–1	W
8 Aug	vs Treowen Stars	1–2	L

2.3Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pontypridd Town	13	8	3	2	+13	27
2	Aberystwyth Town	11	8	1	2	+18	25
3	Swansea University	11	7	3	1	+19	24
4	Caerau (Ely)	13	7	1	5	+1	22
5	Baglan Dragons	13	6	2	5	0	20
6	Ynyshir Albions	11	5	4	2	+7	19
7	Afan Lido	14	5	3	6	-2	18
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	13	4	5	4	+3	17
9	Treowen Stars	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Carmarthen Town	13	4	3	6	-6	15
11	Pontardawe Town	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Caerphilly Athletic	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	Newport City	11	3	4	4	+4	13
14	Cardiff Draconians	11	3	3	5	-5	12
15	Llantwit Major	12	3	3	6	-12	12
16	llanelli AFC	14	0	3	11	-31	3

Team

Pts

+13

+18

+19

-2

-1

-6

-1

-7

-5

-12

-31

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

On our numbers Pontypridd Town have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aberystwyth Town 46%.

How many goals will there be in Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

Our predicted score is Pontypridd Town 1–2 Aberystwyth Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.

When is Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town?

Pontypridd Town vs Aberystwyth Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at USW Sports Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Pontypridd Town v Aberystwyth Town: numbers & prediction