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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Newport County v Plymouth: numbers & prediction

EFL Trophy · England · Rodney Parade

Newport County

DWWDD
2–2
FTPens 4–5

Plymouth

WLWWW
Newport County 17%Draw 20%Plymouth 63% Expected goals 1.38 – 2.62
64%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓

6/10Rating
1.55Odds

Picks by market

ResultPlymouth to win ✗63% · @1.62
Double chancePlymouth or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.53

Newport County vs Plymouth: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Tuesday 6 October the EFL Trophy brings Newport County against Plymouth at Rodney Parade. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Newport County are 3rd on 3 points after 3 matches; Plymouth are 2nd with 6. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Newport County, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Gillingham, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Plymouth, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Leyton Orient, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.

Momentum favours Plymouth, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.5 for Newport County.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Newport County 1.4 xG, Plymouth 2.6 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 64%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Newport County 17%, draw 20%, Plymouth 63%.
  • Lower-risk option: Plymouth or draw (83%) at 1.18.
  • GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.55.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newport County 1–2 Plymouth. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Newport County17%fair 5.83 · @4.20
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @3.60
Plymouth63%fair 1.59 · @1.62
4.00Expected goals
1.38Newport County xG
2.62Plymouth xG
64%Both score
76%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–29%
1–38%
1–17%
0–26%
2–26%
0–36%

From our goals model: Newport County 1.4 – 2.6 Plymouth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPlymouth to win ✗63%1.591.62
Double chancePlymouth or draw ✓83%1.211.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓64%1.561.55
Draw no betPlymouth (draw no bet)79%1.27–
Asian handicapPlymouth -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓91%1.10–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76%1.31–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✓57%1.77–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓63%1.59–
First team to scorePlymouth to score first ✗64%1.55–
Half-time resultPlymouth ahead at half-time ✗49%2.04–
Half-time / full-timeHT Plymouth / FT Plymouth ✗43%2.34–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.53–

Recent results

Newport County – last 6

DWWDDL
3 Oct@ Gillingham0–0D
26 Sepvs Grimsby2–1W
22 Sep@ Swindon Town2–0W
19 Sep@ Accrington ST0–0D
12 Sepvs Fleetwood Town1–1D
5 Sep@ Northampton0–1L
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Plymouth – last 6

WLWWWW
3 Oct@ Leyton Orient2–0W
26 Sepvs Burton Albion0–1L
22 Sepvs Crystal Palace U215–1W
19 Sep@ Blackpool4–2W
12 Sepvs Barnsley3–0W
5 Sep@ Doncaster3–2W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Newport County and Plymouth.

Newport County vs Plymouth head-to-head page →

EFL Trophy table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Cardiff3201+26
2Exeter City3201+16
3Newport County3102-13
4Arsenal U213102-23

More EFL Trophy predictions

League hub
FT Accrington ST1 Salford City1 Pens 5–4 122%3.25X21%3.40257%1.91 2.0–3.0xG GGBoth teams to score 71%@1.50 ✓
FT Sheffield Wednesday2 Sunderland U210 167%1.36X18%5.00215%5.00 3.3–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 69%@1.50 ✗
FT Blackpool2 Crewe2 Pens 4–2 160%1.62X18%3.90222%3.90 3.1–1.9xG GGBoth teams to score 68%@1.50 ✓
FT Rotherham0 Bradford4 120%3.30X21%3.20260%1.95 1.0–2.0xG X2Bradford or draw 80%@1.29 ✓
FT Port Vale2 Mansfield Town0 143%2.50X23%3.10235%2.40 2.1–1.9xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.57 ✗
FT Shrewsbury0 Stockport County2 115%4.50X20%3.50265%1.62 1.7–3.3xG GGBoth teams to score 67%@1.70 ✗
FT Grimsby0 Burton Albion0 Pens 2–4 141%2.30X22%3.25238%2.62 1.5–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 64%@1.44 ✗
FT Fleetwood Town4 Barnsley1 122%3.10X21%3.80257%1.80 1.5–2.5xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.53 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Newport County vs Plymouth?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.

Who will win Newport County vs Plymouth?

On our numbers Newport County have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Plymouth 63%.

How many goals will there be in Newport County vs Plymouth?

We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Newport County vs Plymouth?

Our predicted score is Newport County 1–2 Plymouth, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.

When is Newport County vs Plymouth?

Newport County vs Plymouth (EFL Trophy) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Rodney Parade.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.