Value bet: Louletano to win @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLouletano to win ✗52% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.10
Louletano vs União Santarém: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
União Santarém travel to face Louletano on Saturday 12 September in the Liga 3, with Estadio Algarve the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Louletano are 6th, upper half, on 11 points after 9 matches; União Santarém are 4th (among the top four) with 13. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Louletano, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Lusitano Évora 1911, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
União Santarém, last 5: LLDLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Caldas, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours Louletano, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.3 for União Santarém.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Louletano 1.5 xG, União Santarém 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 46%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Louletano 52%, draw 22%, União Santarém 27%.
Price worth noting: Louletano to win @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (56%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Louletano 1–0 União Santarém. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Louletano52%fair 1.94 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.25
União Santarém27%fair 3.76 · @3.00
2.51Expected goals
1.52Louletano xG
0.99União Santarém xG
46%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–09%
2–19%
0–08%
0–18%
From our goals model: Louletano 1.5 – 1.0 União Santarém expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Louletano to win✗
52%
1.94
2.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
–
Draw no bet
Louletano (draw no bet)✗
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
União Santarém +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Louletano to score first✓
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Louletano / FT Louletano✗
30%
3.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.10
–
Recent results
Louletano – last 6
WWWLDD
6 Sep
vs Lusitano Évora 1911
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Castrense
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Caldas
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs CF Os Belenenses
1–3
L
8 Aug
@ Oliveirense
0–0
D
31 May
@ Vitória de Sernache
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
União Santarém – last 6
LLDLDL
4 Sep
vs Caldas
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ CF Os Belenenses
0–5
L
14 Aug
vs Oliveirense
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ SC Covilha
0–2
L
31 Jul
vs Academica
0–0
D
10 May
@ Amarante
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Louletano and União Santarém.
What is the prediction for Louletano vs União Santarém?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Louletano vs União Santarém?
On our numbers Louletano have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 22% and União Santarém 27%.
How many goals will there be in Louletano vs União Santarém?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Louletano vs União Santarém?
Our predicted score is Louletano 1–0 União Santarém, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Louletano vs União Santarém?
Louletano vs União Santarém (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Algarve.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
