Varzim v Vianense Prediction & Expected Goals (12 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultVarzim to win ✗65% · @1.65

Double chanceVarzim or draw ✗86% · @1.12

Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.77

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.44

Varzim vs Vianense: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

15:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Varzim v Vianense in the Liga 3. In the table, Varzim are 6th, upper half, on 12 points after 9 matches; Vianense are 7th (upper half) with 11. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Varzim, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Paredes, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Vianense, last 5: DWLWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Pacos Ferreira, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Varzim, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.3 for Vianense.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Varzim 1.8 xG, Vianense 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 44%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Varzim 65%, draw 20%, Vianense 14%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Varzim to win (65%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.53, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Varzim 1–0 Vianense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Varzim65%fair 1.53 · @1.65

Draw20%fair 4.92 · @3.50

Vianense14%fair 6.91 · @4.50

2.44Expected goals

1.77Varzim xG

0.66Vianense xG

44%Both score

46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%

2–014%

1–110%

2–19%

0–09%

3–08%

From our goals model: Varzim 1.8 – 0.7 Vianense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Varzim to win ✗	65%	1.53	1.65 ▲
Double chance	Varzim or draw ✗	86%	1.17	1.12
Both teams to score	Not both teams to score ✗	56%	1.77	–
Draw no bet	Varzim (draw no bet) ✗	82%	1.22	–
Asian handicap	Varzim -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	64%	1.56	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	54%	1.86	1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	77%	1.30	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	90%	1.11	–
First team to score	Varzim to score first ✓	66%	1.51	–
Half-time result	Varzim ahead at half-time ✓	45%	2.24	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Varzim / FT Varzim ✗	40%	2.48	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–0 ✗	16%	6.44	–

Varzim – last 6

LWWWWW

5 Sep	vs Paredes	0–1	L
29 Aug	vs Trofense	5–1	W
22 Aug	@ Pacos Ferreira	4–1	W
16 Aug	vs AD Marco 09	2–1	W
9 Aug	@ Trofense	1–0	W
29 Jul	@ Tirsense	1–0	W

2.2Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Vianense – last 6

DWLWDL

5 Sep	vs Pacos Ferreira	2–2	D
30 Aug	vs Minas de Argozelo	8–0	W
23 Aug	@ AD Marco 09	0–2	L
15 Aug	vs Trofense	2–0	W
9 Aug	@ Fafe	0–0	D
29 Jul	@ AVS	0–3	L

2.0Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

17%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paredes	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Leça	9	4	2	3	+2	14
3	AD Marco 09	9	4	2	3	+1	14
4	Fafe	9	3	4	2	+4	13
5	Guimaraes B	9	3	3	3	+2	12
6	Varzim	9	4	0	5	0	12
7	Vianense	9	2	5	2	-1	11
8	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	São João Ver	9	2	3	4	-3	9
10	Trofense	9	1	2	6	-12	5
1	CF Os Belenenses	9	6	3	0	+12	21
2	Atlético CP	9	6	2	1	+11	20
3	Oliveirense	9	3	4	2	0	13
4	União Santarém	9	4	1	4	-4	13
5	Mafra	9	3	3	3	+4	12
6	Louletano	9	3	2	4	0	11
7	Caldas	9	3	2	4	-3	11
8	Vitória de Sernache	9	2	1	6	-10	7
9	SC Covilha	9	1	4	4	-5	7
10	Lusitano Évora 1911	9	1	4	4	-5	7

Team

Pts

+11

-1

-4

-3

-12

+12

+11

-4

-3

-10

-5

-5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Varzim vs Vianense?

Our pick is Varzim to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.

Who will win Varzim vs Vianense?

On our numbers Varzim have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Vianense 14%.

How many goals will there be in Varzim vs Vianense?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Varzim vs Vianense?

Our predicted score is Varzim 1–0 Vianense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Varzim vs Vianense?

Varzim vs Vianense (Liga 3) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Varzim v Vianense: numbers & prediction