Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.88 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMortágua to win ✗41% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.65
AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
AD Nogueirense welcome Mortágua for a Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C fixture on Sunday 8 November (16:00 WAT). In the table, AD Nogueirense are 10th, lower half, on 9 points after 8 matches; Mortágua are 4th (among the top four) with 15.
Current form
AD Nogueirense, last 5: DLDWD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Oliveira Hospital, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Mortágua, last 5: DWLLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with FC Alverca II, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AD Nogueirense 1.2 xG, Mortágua 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AD Nogueirense 34%, draw 24%, Mortágua 41%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.88.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.88 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (69%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: AD Nogueirense 1–1 Mortágua. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AD Nogueirense34%fair 2.91 · @2.56
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @2.86
Mortágua41%fair 2.43 · @2.62
2.60Expected goals
1.23AD Nogueirense xG
1.37Mortágua xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: AD Nogueirense 1.2 – 1.4 Mortágua expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mortágua to win✗
41%
2.43
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.71
1.88 ▲
Draw no bet
Mortágua (draw no bet)
54%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
AD Nogueirense +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.56
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.16
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Mortágua to score first✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✗
23%
4.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.65
–
Recent results
AD Nogueirense – last 6
DLDWDD
1 Nov
@ Oliveira Hospital
3–3
D
25 Oct
@ FC Alverca II
0–3
L
11 Oct
vs Naval 1893
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Benfica Castelo Branco
3–2
W
6 Sep
vs UD da Serra
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Naval 1893
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mortágua – last 6
DWLLDW
1 Nov
vs FC Alverca II
0–0
D
25 Oct
@ Naval 1893
2–0
W
11 Oct
vs Benfica Castelo Branco
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Leça
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ UD da Serra
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Fazendense
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AD Nogueirense and Mortágua.
What is the prediction for AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
On our numbers AD Nogueirense have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mortágua 41%.
How many goals will there be in AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
Our predicted score is AD Nogueirense 1–1 Mortágua, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua?
AD Nogueirense vs Mortágua (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
