Value bet: Os Marialvas to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultOs Marialvas to win ✓57% · @1.91
Double chanceOs Marialvas or draw ✓82% · @1.19
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.78
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.16
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Os Marialvas travel to face Benfica Castelo Branco on Sunday 8 November in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Benfica Castelo Branco are 8th, lower half, on 10 points after 8 matches; Os Marialvas are 1st (leading the league) with 19.
Current form
Benfica Castelo Branco, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Atlético Malveira, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Os Marialvas, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over UD da Serra, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Os Marialvas, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Benfica Castelo Branco.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Benfica Castelo Branco 0.9 xG, Os Marialvas 1.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Benfica Castelo Branco 18%, draw 25%, Os Marialvas 57%.
Lower-risk option: Os Marialvas or draw (82%) at 1.19.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.78.
Price worth noting: Os Marialvas to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: Benfica Castelo Branco 1–1 Os Marialvas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Benfica Castelo Branco18%fair 5.61 · @3.58
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.14
Os Marialvas57%fair 1.74 · @1.91
2.74Expected goals
0.93Benfica Castelo Branco xG
1.82Os Marialvas xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–112%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–06%
0–36%
From our goals model: Benfica Castelo Branco 0.9 – 1.8 Os Marialvas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Os Marialvas to win✓
57%
1.74
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Os Marialvas or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.19
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.78
Draw no bet
Os Marialvas (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Benfica Castelo Branco +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.27
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.24
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Os Marialvas to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Os Marialvas ahead at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Os Marialvas / FT Os Marialvas✓
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
Benfica Castelo Branco – last 6
DLWLWL
1 Nov
@ Atlético Malveira
2–2
D
25 Oct
vs O Elvas
1–3
L
11 Oct
@ Mortágua
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs AD Nogueirense
2–3
L
6 Sep
@ FC Alverca II
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Fátima
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Os Marialvas – last 6
WWLDWW
1 Nov
vs UD da Serra
2–1
W
25 Oct
@ Fazendense
2–1
W
16 Oct
@ Chaves
1–2
L
11 Oct
vs Sertanense
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Ovarense
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Nazarenos
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica Castelo Branco and Os Marialvas.
What is the prediction for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
On our numbers Benfica Castelo Branco have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Os Marialvas 57%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
Our predicted score is Benfica Castelo Branco 1–1 Os Marialvas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas?
Benfica Castelo Branco vs Os Marialvas (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
