Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
1
Value bet: Germinal de Rawson to win @ 1.90 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultGerminal de Rawson to win ✗58% · @1.90
Double chanceGerminal de Rawson or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.12
Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Germinal de Rawson welcome San Martín Mendoza to Estadio El Fortin for a Torneo Federal A fixture on Sunday 23 August (19:00 WAT). In the table, Germinal de Rawson are 30th, lower half, on 18 points after 16 matches; San Martín Mendoza are 23rd (lower half) with 19. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Germinal de Rawson, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sol de Mayo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
San Martín Mendoza, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Deportivo Rincon, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours San Martín Mendoza, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Germinal de Rawson.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Germinal de Rawson 1.3 xG, San Martín Mendoza 0.6 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Germinal de Rawson 58%, draw 22%, San Martín Mendoza 20%.
Lower-risk option: Germinal de Rawson or draw (80%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Germinal de Rawson to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Germinal de Rawson 1–0 San Martín Mendoza. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Germinal de Rawson58%fair 1.73 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.00
San Martín Mendoza20%fair 4.99 · @4.00
1.91Expected goals
1.32Germinal de Rawson xG
0.59San Martín Mendoza xG
46%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–020%
0–015%
2–013%
1–112%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: Germinal de Rawson 1.3 – 0.6 San Martín Mendoza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Germinal de Rawson to win✗
58%
1.73
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Germinal de Rawson or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.57
Draw no bet
Germinal de Rawson (draw no bet)
74%
1.35
–
Asian handicap
San Martín Mendoza +1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.14
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
1.04
First team to score
Germinal de Rawson to score first✗
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Germinal de Rawson / FT Germinal de Rawson✗
32%
3.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.12
–
Recent results
Germinal de Rawson – last 6
LWDWLL
16 Aug
@ Sol de Mayo
0–1
L
12 Aug
vs Santamarina
5–1
W
8 Aug
@ Costa Brava
1–1
D
2 Aug
vs Juventud Unida Univ.
2–1
W
26 Jul
@ Guillermo Brown
0–2
L
12 Jul
vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
San Martín Mendoza – last 6
WWWDDD
16 Aug
vs Deportivo Rincon
1–0
W
13 Aug
vs Sol de Mayo
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Santamarina
1–0
W
2 Aug
vs Costa Brava
2–2
D
26 Jul
vs Argentino Monte Maíz
1–1
D
12 Jul
@ Fundacion Amigos
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Germinal de Rawson and San Martín Mendoza.
What is the prediction for Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
On our numbers Germinal de Rawson have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 22% and San Martín Mendoza 20%.
How many goals will there be in Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
Our predicted score is Germinal de Rawson 1–0 San Martín Mendoza, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza?
Germinal de Rawson vs San Martín Mendoza (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Fortin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
