Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Fezzanese to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFezzanese to win ✗62% · @1.85
Double chanceFezzanese or draw ✗82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.19
Fezzanese vs Valenzana: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 4 October: Fezzanese v Valenzana in the Serie D Girone A. In the table, Fezzanese are 15th, lower half, on 11 points after 11 matches; Valenzana are 17th (in the drop zone) with 6.
Current form
Fezzanese, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Imperia, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Valenzana, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Borgosesia, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fezzanese, collecting 1.4 points per game to 0.2 for Valenzana.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fezzanese 1.8 xG, Valenzana 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fezzanese 62%, draw 20%, Valenzana 18%.
Lower-risk option: Fezzanese or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Fezzanese to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Fezzanese or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fezzanese 1–0 Valenzana. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fezzanese62%fair 1.61 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.40
Valenzana18%fair 5.61 · @3.60
2.53Expected goals
1.75Fezzanese xG
0.78Valenzana xG
47%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Fezzanese 1.8 – 0.8 Valenzana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fezzanese to win✗
62%
1.61
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Fezzanese or draw✗
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
–
Draw no bet
Fezzanese (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Fezzanese -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
First team to score
Fezzanese to score first
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Fezzanese ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fezzanese / FT Fezzanese✗
38%
2.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.19
–
Recent results
Fezzanese – last 5
LLWWD
27 Sep
@ Imperia
0–2
L
21 Sep
vs Gozzano
0–2
L
16 Sep
@ Sestri Levante
3–0
W
13 Sep
vs Chisola
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Bra
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Valenzana – last 6
LDLLLL
27 Sep
vs Borgosesia
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Asti
2–2
D
16 Sep
vs Lascaris
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ Millesimo
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Alessandria
1–2
L
3 May
vs Chisola
2–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fezzanese and Valenzana.
What is the prediction for Fezzanese vs Valenzana?
Our pick is Fezzanese or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Fezzanese vs Valenzana?
On our numbers Fezzanese have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Valenzana 18%.
How many goals will there be in Fezzanese vs Valenzana?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fezzanese vs Valenzana?
Our predicted score is Fezzanese 1–0 Valenzana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Fezzanese vs Valenzana?
Fezzanese vs Valenzana (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
