Value bet: Millesimo to win @ 3.22 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAsti to win ✓41% · @2.19
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · fair 1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.12
Asti vs Millesimo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 4 October the Serie D Girone A brings Asti against Millesimo. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Asti are 10th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Millesimo are 6th (upper half) with 17. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Asti, last 5: LDWWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Alessandria, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Millesimo, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Lascaris, at home. Goals for and against: 1.6 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Asti 1.3 xG, Millesimo 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Asti 41%, draw 21%, Millesimo 38%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.87.
Price worth noting: Millesimo to win @3.22 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Asti 1–1 Millesimo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Asti41%fair 2.44 · @2.19
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.55
Millesimo38%fair 2.66 · @3.22
2.50Expected goals
1.29Asti xG
1.21Millesimo xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Asti 1.3 – 1.2 Millesimo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Asti to win✓
41%
2.44
2.19
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.87
Draw no bet
Asti (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.91
–
Asian handicap
Millesimo +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.04
First team to score
Asti to score first✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Asti / FT Asti✗
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.12
–
Recent results
Asti – last 6
LDWWLW
27 Sep
@ Alessandria
0–2
L
20 Sep
vs Valenzana
2–2
D
16 Sep
@ Imperia
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Gozzano
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Sestri Levante
0–2
L
10 May
@ Cairese
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Millesimo – last 5
WLWWL
27 Sep
vs Lascaris
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Derthona
0–1
L
16 Sep
vs Alessandria
4–1
W
12 Sep
vs Valenzana
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Imperia
0–1
L
1.6Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Asti and Millesimo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Asti vs Millesimo?
On our numbers Asti have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Millesimo 38%.
How many goals will there be in Asti vs Millesimo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Asti vs Millesimo?
Our predicted score is Asti 1–1 Millesimo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Asti vs Millesimo?
Asti vs Millesimo (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
