Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Picks by market
ResultCorreggese to win ✓42% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · fair 1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗64% · @1.60
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.73
Correggese vs Pavia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 4 October: Correggese v Pavia in the Serie D Girone D. In the table, Correggese are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 11 matches; Pavia are 12th (lower half) with 14. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Correggese, last 5: WLWDD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cittadella Vis Modena, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Pavia, last 5: DDDDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Arconatese, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Correggese, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Pavia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Correggese 1.0 xG, Pavia 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Correggese 42%, draw 23%, Pavia 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.60 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Correggese 1–0 Pavia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Correggese42%fair 2.38 · @2.35
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.10
Pavia35%fair 2.85 · @2.75
1.94Expected goals
1.04Correggese xG
0.91Pavia xG
41%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Correggese 1.0 – 0.9 Pavia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Correggese to win✓
42%
2.38
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
–
Draw no bet
Correggese (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Pavia +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Correggese to score first✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.73
–
Recent results
Correggese – last 6
WLWDDW
27 Sep
@ Cittadella Vis Modena
1–0
W
20 Sep
vs USD Casatese
1–3
L
16 Sep
vs Varesina
2–1
W
13 Sep
@ Arconatese
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Sant'Angelo
1–1
D
3 May
vs Pro Sesto
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Pavia – last 6
DDDDLW
27 Sep
vs Arconatese
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Sant'Angelo
0–0
D
16 Sep
vs Solbiatese
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Crema
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Pisa
1–6
L
10 May
@ Breno
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Correggese and Pavia.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Correggese vs Pavia?
On our numbers Correggese have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pavia 35%.
How many goals will there be in Correggese vs Pavia?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Correggese vs Pavia?
Our predicted score is Correggese 1–0 Pavia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Correggese vs Pavia?
Correggese vs Pavia (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
