Value bet: Castellanzese to win @ 2.93 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSant'Angelo to win ✗39% · @2.32
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · fair 1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.34
Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 4 October: Sant'Angelo v Castellanzese in the Serie D Girone D. In the table, Sant'Angelo are 9th, upper half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Castellanzese are 4th (among the top four) with 19.
Current form
Sant'Angelo, last 5: LDWDD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Pistoiese, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Castellanzese, last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Crema, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sant'Angelo 1.3 xG, Castellanzese 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sant'Angelo 39%, draw 21%, Castellanzese 39%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Castellanzese to win @2.93 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.31). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sant'Angelo 1–1 Castellanzese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sant'Angelo39%fair 2.54 · @2.32
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.63
Castellanzese39%fair 2.54 · @2.93
2.56Expected goals
1.28Sant'Angelo xG
1.28Castellanzese xG
52%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Sant'Angelo 1.3 – 1.3 Castellanzese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sant'Angelo to win✗
39%
2.54
2.32
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Draw no bet
Sant'Angelo (draw no bet)✗
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Castellanzese +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.31
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.06
First team to score
Sant'Angelo to score first
46%
2.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sant'Angelo / FT Sant'Angelo✗
21%
4.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.34
–
Recent results
Sant'Angelo – last 6
LDWDDD
27 Sep
@ Pistoiese
0–3
L
20 Sep
vs Pavia
0–0
D
16 Sep
@ USD Casatese
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Varesina
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Correggese
1–1
D
3 May
@ Lentigione
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Castellanzese – last 6
WWLLWL
27 Sep
vs Crema
4–0
W
20 Sep
@ Solbiatese
4–1
W
16 Sep
vs Oltrepò
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Lentigione
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Pontedera
3–1
W
10 May
vs Varesina
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sant'Angelo and Castellanzese.
What is the prediction for Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese?
On our numbers Sant'Angelo have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Castellanzese 39%.
How many goals will there be in Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese?
Our predicted score is Sant'Angelo 1–1 Castellanzese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese?
Sant'Angelo vs Castellanzese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
