Varesina 16%Draw 23%Pro Patria 61%Expected goals 0.92 – 1.99
61%
Betarazi pick
Pro Patria to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
Picks by market
ResultPro Patria to win ✗61% · @1.73
Double chancePro Patria or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.87
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–3 ✗7% · fair 13.95
Varesina vs Pro Patria: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pro Patria travel to face Varesina on Sunday 4 October in the Serie D Girone D – the ball rolls at 14:00 WAT. In the table, Varesina are 14th, lower half, on 11 points after 11 matches; Pro Patria are 3rd (among the top four) with 21.
Current form
Varesina, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to USD Casatese, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Pro Patria, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Solbiatese, at home. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Momentum favours Pro Patria, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for Varesina.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Varesina 0.9 xG, Pro Patria 2.0 xG – a total near 2.9. That is an open game on paper: 54% for three or more goals, 46% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Varesina 16%, draw 23%, Pro Patria 61%.
Lower-risk option: Pro Patria or draw (84%) at 1.17.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pro Patria to win (61%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.63, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Varesina 0–1 Pro Patria. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Varesina16%fair 6.41 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.33 · @3.50
Pro Patria61%fair 1.63 · @1.73
2.91Expected goals
0.92Varesina xG
1.99Pro Patria xG
46%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–111%
0–211%
1–110%
1–210%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Varesina 0.9 – 2.0 Pro Patria expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pro Patria to win✗
61%
1.63
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Pro Patria or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
–
Draw no bet
Pro Patria (draw no bet)
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Pro Patria -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
First team to score
Pro Patria to score first✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Pro Patria ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pro Patria / FT Pro Patria✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–3✗
7%
13.95
–
Recent results
Varesina – last 6
LLLDWW
27 Sep
@ USD Casatese
2–4
L
20 Sep
vs Pistoiese
0–1
L
16 Sep
@ Correggese
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Sant'Angelo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Cittadella Vis Modena
3–2
W
10 May
@ Castellanzese
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Pro Patria – last 6
LWWWWW
27 Sep
vs Solbiatese
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Arconatese
3–0
W
16 Sep
vs Crema
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ Pontedera
3–2
W
6 Sep
vs Oltrepò
2–1
W
12 Aug
vs Gozzano
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Varesina and Pro Patria.
What is the prediction for Varesina vs Pro Patria?
Our pick is Pro Patria to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Varesina vs Pro Patria?
On our numbers Varesina have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pro Patria 61%.
How many goals will there be in Varesina vs Pro Patria?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Varesina vs Pro Patria?
Our predicted score is Varesina 0–1 Pro Patria, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Varesina vs Pro Patria?
Varesina vs Pro Patria (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
