Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultPistoiese to win ✓60% · @1.75
Double chancePistoiese or draw ✓81% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.70
USD Casatese vs Pistoiese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
USD Casatese welcome Pistoiese for a Serie D Girone D fixture on Sunday 4 October (14:00 WAT). In the table, USD Casatese are 5th, upper half, on 19 points after 11 matches; Pistoiese are 1st (leading the league) with 28.
Current form
USD Casatese, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Varesina, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Pistoiese, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Sant'Angelo, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Pistoiese, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.2 for USD Casatese.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give USD Casatese 0.9 xG, Pistoiese 1.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – USD Casatese 19%, draw 21%, Pistoiese 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pistoiese to win (60%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.67, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: USD Casatese 0–1 Pistoiese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
USD Casatese19%fair 5.30 · @4.00
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.40
Pistoiese60%fair 1.67 · @1.75
2.78Expected goals
0.92USD Casatese xG
1.86Pistoiese xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–111%
0–211%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–06%
From our goals model: USD Casatese 0.9 – 1.9 Pistoiese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pistoiese to win✓
60%
1.67
1.75
Double chance
Pistoiese or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
–
Draw no bet
Pistoiese (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
USD Casatese +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
First team to score
Pistoiese to score first✓
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Pistoiese ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pistoiese / FT Pistoiese✓
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.70
–
Recent results
USD Casatese – last 6
WWLDWW
27 Sep
vs Varesina
4–2
W
20 Sep
@ Correggese
3–1
W
16 Sep
vs Sant'Angelo
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Solbiatese
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Arconatese
2–1
W
10 May
vs Leon
4–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Pistoiese – last 6
WWWWWD
27 Sep
vs Sant'Angelo
3–0
W
20 Sep
@ Varesina
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Arconatese
5–0
W
13 Sep
@ Crema
3–1
W
6 Sep
vs Solbiatese
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Seravezza
0–0
D
2.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USD Casatese and Pistoiese.
What is the prediction for USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?
Our pick is Pistoiese to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?
On our numbers USD Casatese have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Pistoiese 60%.
How many goals will there be in USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?
Our predicted score is USD Casatese 0–1 Pistoiese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is USD Casatese vs Pistoiese?
USD Casatese vs Pistoiese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
